Once again, Barack Obama has proven to be the luckiest politician alive.

Just when the race was tightening to a dead heat in the election’s closing days, one spectacular betrayal and one rank miscalculation on the Republican side have turned the contest back in Obama’s favor.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who will tour his storm-ravaged state today with President Obama, was all over the networks Tuesday telling what a wonderful leader his president was.

“I spoke to the president three times yesterday,” Christie boasted, calling Obama “outstanding.” When Fox co-host Steve Doocy meekly asked Christie if he planned any events with Romney, Christie snarkily replied, “I have no idea nor am I the least bit concerned or interested.”

One part of the dreaded fiscal cliff actually presents an opportunity that could be good politics and good economics. The temporary two-point cut in the payroll tax expires January 1 (along with the Bush tax cuts). The $1.2 billion sequester also kicks in.

Deficit hawks of both parties have been saying that it’s irresponsible to extend the payroll tax cut, while defenders of Social Security such as the AARP are opposed to an extension for fear of diverting revenue from the Social Security trust funds and adding ammo to the crusade for cutting back the system’s benefits.

This was supposed to be about a six-point race in Obama's favor. That's sure how it looked on the eve of the first debate. But now it's dead even.

What happened? 

First, of course, Romney cleaned Obama's clock in the first debate. Obama came back strong in debate number two, but evidently a lot of swing voters formed their impressions in that deadly first encounter.

But there is a more fundamental problem here. The narrative of the past four years should have revolved around free-market ideology, Wall Street plunder, Republican rule, and the fact that Republicans first crashed the economy and then blocked a recovery.

Here’s what President Obama needs to do tonight:

1. Show leadership, resolve, and toughness
2. Directly call Romney on his evasions and deceptions
3. Demolish several of Romney’s outright lies
4. Not pass up several opportunities to make points, as he did in the first debate
5. Not make any major mistakes
6. Take advantage of any Romney blunders

Specifically:

• Refute Romney's claims that the Benghazi attack was Obama’s failure, and shame Romney for trying to make political hay of it

Biden did a lot better than his president did in the first debate. But Obama still needs to hammer home all of the inconsistencies and evasions in the Romney-Ryan positions on such key issues as Social Security, Medicare, and taxation.

Between moderator Martha Raddatz’s questioning and the vice-president’s persistence, the viewer just about grasped that the Romney-Ryan arithmetic was entirely bogus when the Republicans claim that there were $5 trillion worth of loopholes that can be closed to pay for new tax cuts without cutting programs, giving further breaks to the rich, or increasing the deficit.

But Biden did not quite demand in so many words:

Which loopholes would you close?

What would they add up to?

President Obama gets a lift from a relatively positive employment report for September. The nation gained 114,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.8 percent, the lowest since Obama took office. Earlier disappointing figures were revised upwards, by 40,000 for July and 45,000 for August.

All this gives Obama some bragging rights, and heads off what would have been a withering attack had the news been bad.

But Obama makes a mistake by emphasizing what the progress the economy is making. Median household incomes are down, young people face rough going as they enter the job market, and the elderly have dwindling pension coverage and almost no returns on their savings in a zero interest rate environment.