Mark Schmitt says sorry, TNR, but Obama is still more Reagan than Carter:
John Judis says, of the economy, that “if Obama could command [Reagan’s] numbers, Democrats could seriously limit their losses in November.” But not only are Obama’s numbers better than Reagan’s, Reagan didn’t “seriously limit” his own losses. The economy in 1982 flipped 27 House seats to the Democrats, enough to enable the party to marginalize the conservative Democrats who had supported Reagan’s policies in 1981. (Democrats gained only one seat in the Senate, probably because only 11 Republicans were up for re-election that year.) The basic, boring insight of the political scientists is right here: Bad economies hurt presidents.