If there’s one thing we’ve been able to count on in American politics over the last decade, it is the MAGA base uncritically swallowing everything Donald Trump says. His attempt to strong-arm Ukraine into falsely smearing Joe Biden, the fact that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, and of course the Big Lie that Biden stole the 2020 election—in each case, his base instantly believed his ridiculous blustering lies. (One minor exception was Trump’s hesitant advocacy for the COVID-19 vaccine, though he quickly reversed course on that one, and now is a full-blown anti-vaxxer.)
Trump’s ability to get his base to believe him didn’t involve anything particularly ingenious. He would essentially say the blue sky is red, and MAGA would agree. The bullying of Zelensky in Ukraine was a “perfect call,” Russian interference was a “hoax,” and the election he lost was “rigged.” The mere assertion was enough.
But now Trump has stoked real anger and disappointment among the MAGA crowd over his refusal to release supposed files about Jeffrey Epstein’s client list. Despite increasingly irritable posts on Truth Social and comments to reporters, calling his own supporters “stupid” and “foolish,” and despite Trump’s most loyal toadies like Charlie Kirk and Tim Pool attempting to change the subject, segments of MAGA aren’t obeying. Right-wing accounts on Truth Social are lambasting or pleading with Trump, while several high-profile MAGA voices, including Alex Jones, have refused to let it go.
On first blush, this is somewhat mysterious. Claiming the Epstein files are a “hoax” is, if anything, less preposterous than the 2020 Big Lie. And hitherto it has been hard to discern limits to MAGA brain rot. These people can plainly believe just about anything, even if it literally kills them—witness, for instance, the unvaccinated Texas GOP official who was posting anti-vaccine memes on Facebook right up until he died of COVID.
But there is a kind of unmasking of the Wizard of Oz moment here: Once you find an issue where the base isn’t interested in excuses and deflection, they can see what we’ve all seen for years—just how bad Trump is at excuses and deflection.
Just look at Trump’s last public comment on this, shrieking how “my PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bullshit,’ hook, line, and sinker,” calling anyone questioning his abrupt dropping of the Epstein case “weaklings” and saying “I don’t want their support anymore.” That’s definitely a way to get skeptics to shut up!
Once the inanity of Trump’s statements becomes this clear, people start noticing that Trump’s actions are making him look like the guiltiest man alive.
Claiming that Barack Obama and James Comey “made up” the Epstein files is Trump’s usual denial of reality, but when he spent close to a decade playing up Epstein for political advantage, it’s impossible to sell this to people who feel betrayed.
In another misstep, Trump recently called the Epstein story “boring.” On the contrary, it’s about the juiciest, most riveting possible subject for the average American. It’s got it all: sex, money, power, celebrities, corruption, rape, and an alleged murder conspiracy. We as a people can’t get enough of that stuff. It would be hard to imagine something better designed to juice TV ratings and true-crime podcast downloads.
Once the inanity of Trump’s statements becomes this clear, people start noticing that Trump’s actions are making him look like the guiltiest man alive. Why is the Trump administration releasing video footage of Epstein’s cell that is mysteriously missing two minutes and 53 seconds of footage? Why did he fire the prosecutor who charged Epstein in 2019? Why is Attorney General Pam Bondi claiming there is no client list when she herself told Fox News she had it on her desk a few months ago? Why, when a reporter asked Bondi about Epstein at a recent cabinet meeting, did Trump jump in and shut down the discussion?
Why, as The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday evening, did Trump apparently send Epstein a personal note for his 50th birthday party in 2003, part of a leather-bound compilation assembled by Ghislaine Maxwell, containing a Trump-drawn cartoon of a naked woman, and an imagined conversation reading as follows:
Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey.
Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it.
Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?
Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you.
Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret.
Gosh, what could the secret be? (Trump denied the report and threatened to sue the Journal for publishing it.)
Asking why this scandal is sticking while others were dismissed by the base is interesting. One factor is just how extensive the Trump-Epstein connections are. As my colleague David Dayen wrote recently, they were neighbors in Florida for years. Trump and his family flew multiple times on Epstein’s jet, and he appears in the infamous “black book.” Ghislaine Maxwell allegedly recruited girls for Epstein at Mar-a-Lago; one victim testified that Maxwell introduced her to Trump when she was 14 years old (though she did not allege any misconduct on Trump’s part).
Trump himself told New York in 2002 they had been friends since the 1980s. “I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy … He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.” Doesn’t exactly sound like someone who was unfamiliar with the dark rumors swirling around Epstein, even then! Indeed, one business associate said he told Trump about Epstein’s proclivities in the early ’90s, to no avail.
Trump’s appointee as secretary of labor, Alex Acosta, also was the prosecutor who negotiated a sweetheart plea bargain for Epstein in his first conviction. And, of course, Trump was president when Epstein supposedly committed suicide.
In an age of declining literacy and addiction to short-form video apps, that history is made more compelling by how often Trump and Epstein were photographed and filmed together, including partying with young women. That’s a lot of fuel for view-farming TikTokers.
There’s also how the right-wing media ecosystem has become somewhat more fragmented over time. Fox News might obey Trump’s commands immediately—talk of Epstein was immediately cut off in the last week—but the much larger galaxy of independent podcasters, YouTubers, and so forth are not so loyal. People like Joe Rogan and Megyn Kelly not only are outside of Trump’s direct control, but also have their own incentives as content creators. They are clearly finding it hard to ignore the hottest topic in politics.
Finally, and I suspect most importantly, the Epstein story strikes at the heart of MAGA’s conspiratorial mindset. It bears a striking resemblance to the Pizzagate and QAnon conspiracies about a cabal of Democratic pedophiles who worship Satan and drink the blood of children, no doubt because they were inspired in part by Epstein. But unlike such fabrications, Epstein was a real person and his accomplices were not all Democrats.
Trump was supposed to be the man who would pull back the curtain on the conspiracy, expose the Democrats as child predators, and thus justify a “Day of the Rope”–style mass execution. Now he is refusing to do this, and I suspect the resulting confusion and despair is causing some flickering of life in MAGA-world’s atrophied frontal lobes.
I have no idea whether Epstein killed himself, though I will admit that Trump’s unbelievably squirrelly behavior has raised my suspicions considerably. But it would be quite ironic if the MAGA movement tore itself apart over a conspiracy that was actually true. Perhaps the child predators are calling from inside the house.