Most commentators, including me, concluded that the Tuesday election victory saved Democrats from capitulating to Republican demands to pass a simple continuing resolution to reopen the government, in exchange for vague assurances of a vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies that amount to nothing. But my reporting finds that at the Thursday meeting of the Senate Democratic caucus, two days after the election, Democrats very nearly capitulated once again.
Here’s what occurred. It has been widely assumed that the group of eight mostly centrist Senate Democrats, who have been looking to broker a hollow deal on Republican terms, were freelancing. In fact, they were acting with the express approval of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and were reporting to him daily.
At Thursday’s meeting, they told their caucus colleagues that they now had ten votes to reopen the government in exchange for no real Republican concessions. At that, much of the rest of the caucus went ballistic, and some of the supposed ten said that, in fact, they were not willing to vote for any such deal.
The leaders of the proposed Democratic cave-in, Sens. Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, both of New Hampshire, and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, then backed down. Only after that did Schumer go public with his proposal to reopen the government in exchange for a one-year extension of the ACA subsidies, along with a bipartisan commission to figure out a long-term solution.
Republican Senate Leader John Thune (R-SD), who had been led to expect a Democratic capitulation, first accused Schumer of “browbeating” his colleagues but then said later Saturday that talks were continuing.
President Trump, meanwhile, who had urged the Senate to stay in weekend session to reach a deal, reverted to his usual rants on Truth Social Saturday morning, declaring: “I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE, and have money left over.” He also called once again for an end of the filibuster.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), chair of the committee with jurisdiction over health care, pitched a related scheme that would turn the enhanced ACA subsidies into a flexible spending account, which would likely push people into high-deductible plans and complicate the maddening health care system even further.
Informed observers tell me that the obvious compromise deal, which would allow each side to claim a partial victory, is either a shorter extension of the ACA subsidies for less than a year, or an extention with a partial cut at higher incomes. It remains to be seen whether both sides can get to yes.
The mystery is why Schumer keeps flirting with capitulation in exchange for nothing. Democrats have the political momentum, Republicans are divided, and a majority of voters blame Republicans for the shutdown. Schumer himself faces a likely primary challenge for his own Senate seat. He is even more vulnerable if he presides over a Democratic capitulation.
Equally bizarre is Shaheen’s game, since she is not even running for re-election when her term expires in 2026. She is on the Appropriations Committee, and part of the weak Republican offer is to pass the appropriations bills that have gone through the committee on a bipartisan basis. Clearly, Shaheen is more concerned with getting those bills done than using important leverage to protect the signature Democratic legislative achievement of this century.
Even when Schumer and centrist Democrats have been dealt a strong hand, these are the sort of players who would fold a royal flush.