Feeling down about Joe Manchin, the Kabul debacle, the lingering pandemic, and Biden’s sinking approval ratings? Here’s a little good news:
The Republican abortion laws in Texas, Mississippi, and elsewhere are likely to drive independent voters, especially suburban women, into the arms of Democrats. Likewise the games Republican governors are playing with people’s lives around masks.
With every passing day, as a larger fraction of Americans are vaccinated and disgusted with those who aren’t (and their Republican enablers), the more the sane people’s majority grows.
And even though the reconciliation process will be Perils of Pauline right down to the wire, there is no way we won’t get a bill. It may be hundreds of billions less than we want and need, but benefits will soon begin helping ordinary Americans. And we can come back for more in the next budget reconciliation.
Also, FiveThirtyEight has been keeping track of the likely partisan gains and losses from redistricting, which once looked as if it would cost several Democratic House seats. According to their latest tally, we are almost at break-even, with four likely Republican pickups and two likely Democratic pickups.
Feeling a little better?
Now, before you start feeling too good, it’s still the case that Biden’s approval rating and the current generic support for the two parties forecasts the Democratic loss of the House in 2022. So, to keep our democracy, we will need all of these breaks and more.
