Surprise — according to The Wall Street Journal, House transportation committee chair Jim Oberstar said yesterday that it’s unlikely that a transit bill will pass this fall.

The bill Oberstar introduced this summer would, over the span of six years, allot a total of $500 billion to everything from the standard highway projects to high-speed rail to an awesomely named new Office of Intermodalism. Elana Schor over at Streetsblog is holding out hope the bill may still go up for a vote late this fall or early spring[CONSIDER CUTTING:; she spoke with a spokesman from Oberstar’s office who said that the statement was not an endorsement of an extension.]

But with health care now taking priority and climate change legislation looming, the prospects for getting something passed before 2011 are pretty slim. Plus, neither Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood or Barbara Boxer — transit’s voice in the Senate — are really pushing for immediate action.

On top of all this — rally the deficit hawks — there’s a huge gap in funding for the legislation. From where I stand, this seems to be the most challenging obstacle. In a different post, Elana suggests that a) raising the gas tax would solve the shortfall, which it absolutely would and b) spinning a tax as a way to reduce congestion and thereby shorten commute times would make it politically palatable, which frankly I’m not too sure about.

Shorter commutes may have some appeal to suburban voters, but I doubt it would have much resonance with the populations of largely rural states like Wyoming, Mississippi, and New Mexico, where last summer’s high gas prices hit hardest. This should be less of a problem in the House, but will likely be a sticking point in the Senate if progress is made on the bill.

The benefits of a gas tax should be promoted when the transit bill finally starts to move forward. But I think emphasizing the costs of ignoring the repair of our broken infrastructure system is a far stronger and more urgent message.

Alexandra Gutierrez