Trump has now fixated on his demand that Iran must allow shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz as his condition for ending the war. If Iran doesn’t agree, Trump threatens both to obliterate vital infrastructure such as electric power and desalination plants, and to enlist NATO allies to clear the strait by force.
What could possibly go wrong?
For starters, Iran has credibly threatened to retaliate by targeting electric power and desalination facilities of other Gulf states. Tehran has demonstrated that despite all the damage it has suffered, Iran still has plenty of capacity to inflict damage on its near neighbors.
Over the weekend, Trump issued an ultimatum that Iran had to clear the strait in 48 hours or he’d attack every power plant in Iran, at which point Iran said that any power plant attack would lead them to “close the strait completely.” Then, early Monday morning in a post on Truth Social, Trump reversed course and said that the U.S. and Iran were negotiating a “total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” and that he would postpone any American attacks on Iranian power plants by five days.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Tehran was in talks with the U.S., saying there was “no dialogue” with Washington. Senior Iranian officials described Trump’s story as just a ploy to buy time and reassure oil and financial markets.
Meanwhile, also on Monday, the Israelis jumped the gun and launched multiple assaults on Tehran’s electric grid, causing serious blackouts in much of the city. It’s not clear whether Trump was letting Israel do his dirty work with his tacit consent, or whether Israel was once again deliberately trying to undermine the prospect of any cease-fire.
Nor was it clear whether it was Israel’s actions that dampened Iran’s interest in a deal. With the assault on Iran’s power grid, it doesn’t much matter whether Israel or the U.S. did the deed. A red line has been crossed, inviting retaliation.
Despite their close alliance, the interests of Trump and Israel’s Netanyahu diverge. Bibi wants to prolong the war, while Trump would like some kind of exit, if he can find one that he can spin as some kind of victory.
Today On TAP
This story first appeared in our Today On TAP newsletter, a weekday email featuring commentary on the daily news from Robert Kuttner and Harold Meyerson.
In another ring of the circus, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was doing a delicate tightrope act. Appearing on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Rutte said that NATO countries are “coming together” to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. But support for military action is far from the view of key NATO members, notably Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, while the U.K. has equivocated. Rutte is pressing them to give him something that he can characterize as support. It’s a fool’s errand.
The most dangerous Trump fantasy is that any military action short of total obliteration of Iran can make the strait safe for tankers. With naval mines and drones threatening them, no sane tanker owner would risk the trip, escorted or not, no matter what military forces Trump brings to the area.
So the logic of the situation, compounded by Trump’s delusions and Israel’s freelancing, combines to pull the U.S. deeper into a quagmire. Opening the strait is Trump’s obsession; the more difficult that turns out to be, the more Trump is impelled to widen and deepen the war.
There is still a faint chance that Trump and the Iranians will cut a deal—an end to hostilities in exchange for opening the strait. But right now, the Iranians are feeling both sufficiently strong and sufficiently aggrieved that they may well refuse terms that Trump can accept.
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