The sudden passing of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has many ramifications. Among the widely remarked is the loss of a “Trump-whisperer” who was supportive of the U.S. helping Ukraine resist Putin, and of a Republican who was an occasional moderate on immigration and other bipartisan causes. There has also been speculation about who might succeed Graham as South Carolina senator, a Trumper or more of a critic such as Rep. Nancy Mace.
But one consequence that has been largely missed is the impact on budget politics. As chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham was pretty much a Trump loyalist. His death comes in the middle of a very messy fight over budget reconciliation.
Congress has already passed two reconciliation bills in the past year. The first, the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, was enacted in July 2025. Democrats refused to approve funding for the Department of Homeland Security without tight limits on ICE excesses; that funding was put off for a second reconciliation bill, which Republicans narrowly rammed through Congress and Trump signed on June 10 of this year, providing $70 billion for ICE and Customs and Border Patrol.
Succeeding Graham as Budget Committee chair is Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, one of the few remaining deficit hawks in the Senate GOP caucus. Trump’s latest budget was already something of a fantasy, with its massive increases in military spending and huge tax cuts, leading to even larger deficits and increases in the national debt, just as interest rates and carrying costs of the debt are rising. Johnson is likely to resist much of this, or demand even deeper cuts in what’s left of domestic spending, or both, creating more headaches for Trump and his fellow Republicans.
The shift on budget politics also makes it even less likely that Trump will be able to achieve another obsession—the use of budget reconciliation to pass his SAVE America Act, which would give the executive branch control over election rolls, allow bogus purges, politicize mail-in voting, and require proof of citizenship and photo ID to register and vote.
Today On TAP
This story first appeared in our free Today On TAP newsletter, a weekday email featuring commentary on the daily news from Robert Kuttner and Harold Meyerson.
Even before such complications as Mitch McConnell’s prolonged illness and absence from the Senate, and now Graham’s death and Ron Johnson’s new role as chair, the Senate votes were not there to use reconciliation to pass the SAVE America Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is opposed to the idea, which violates germaneness rules, and will likely be rejected by the Senate parliamentarian (whom Thune has refused to fire).
On the House side, Speaker Mike Johnson has been a Trump loyalist on the reconciliation strategy, but to his right there are dozens of House Republicans who are refusing to act on reconciliation unless it includes the SAVE America Act—which is anathema to the Senate.
A fine mess—for Trump. He admitted as much in a Sunday call to NBC’s Meet the Press. “This is a big blow to the Save America Act, let me tell you,” Trump said. “He was pushing for the SAVE America Act like crazy.”
The knock-on effects of such random events as Graham’s abrupt passing just might save America.
