Paul Waldman explains why Democrats might still be stronger than the troubled GOP come November:
While most of those in the business of predicting elections are smart enough not to offer a specific number of seats they think the parties will gain or lose, there is fairly wide agreement on this proposition: Come November, the Democrats are doomed. They’ll hold the Senate, but the House is all but lost. Charlie Cook, probably the most popular of this group, has for months been saying things like, “It’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House.” Others have been only somewhat more pessimistic about the ruling party’s chances.
The Democrats will certainly lose seats. The president’s party almost always does in off-year elections, and Democrats have to defend seats they won in many conservative districts in 2006 and 2008. Put that together with the still-struggling economy and a broad anti-incumbent mood, and you’ve got a lot of nervous Democrats — and a lot of Republicans who believe that we’ll soon be adding the phrase “Speaker of the House John Boehner” to our national lexicon.