A common perception of the upcoming presidential election is that it will pivot on whether voters credit the recent uptick in employment as indicative of an economic turnaround, and thus support the President. Or whether they view record unemployment as a sign that a new approach to the economy is called for, even if the downward trend has been arrested.
This is consistent with academic models of presidential elections in which high unemployment at election-time, at least in the past, has predicted defeat for the party in power.
However, if one wants to look for data that inform the question whether voters are better off than they were four years ago, one should look at wages as well as employment. After all, even in this economy most people still have jobs.
The latest edition of The State of Working America, published this week by the Economic Policy Institute, focuses not on high unemployment but on a “lost decade” of wage and income growth for almost everyone except those earning the very highest incomes.
