Looking at some historical revisionism on the right about John McCain's truly epic presidential fail in 2008, Jon Chait notes a common -- and false -- idea: That McCain's campaign died after the financial crisis shocked the American electorate into voting for Obama. In reality, though, "what killed McCain is that the economy in general was terrible."
Chait is right, although the financial crisis and McCain's absurd reaction to it -- "suspending" his campaign to grandstand in Washington as the Bush administration organized a response to the crash -- drove home to many voters how dismal the economy was and sapped support from the incumbent party. But the conservative political analysis that blames the economy for their loss, and not McCain's campaign and policies, apparently only applies to conservatives. Today, pundits on the right ignore the argument that economic fundamentals are the key factor in the 2010 election, instead proposing that voters are rejecting the Obama administration's policies.
Consider Charles Krauthammer, who wrote that the 2008 election reflected a “rejection of the Bush administration, a weariness of war, and the rejection of an administration at a time of economic collapse. It was nothing more.” Yet now, as the economy still struggles toward recovery, voters aren't disappointed because of high unemployment and slow growth -- Krauthammer says Democrats are facing "a widespread popular backlash to the already enacted elements of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda."
It's hardly surprising that ideologues are happy to attribute their own losses to fundamentals beyond their immediate control, and argue that those of their opponents amount to a rejection of their ideas. The reality is that policy decisions go into effect over time and that voters express their preferences pragmatically, based on how they experience the results of those policies, not on how they are characterized by their supporters or detractors.
For example, regardless of what you think of the stimulus -- I think it had a significant effect in reversing the recession -- the fall election won't be a referendum on how the Democrats attempted to use fiscal stimulus to attack the recession. The results will be a reflection of the fact that unemployment remains high and growth remains slow. Beware anyone who tells you otherwise.
-- Tim Fernholz
