TAP welcomes Adam Doster, a Chicago-based journalist who will blog for us today and tomorrow as the Chicago mayoral election, which Rahm Emanuel is widely expected to win, unfolds. You can regularly find his blogging here.
When three Chicago Democrats ran in a primary election 22 years ago for the opportunity to fill the chair left vacant by the surprise death of legendary mayor Harold Washington, local political junkies expected a knock-down, drag-out fight. They were ultimately disappointed. State’s attorney (and first political son) Richard M. Daley coasted to victory over interim mayor Eugene Sawyer in a mild campaign reporters characterized as “surprisingly ho-hum” and “a lackluster tussle between mediocre candidates.” USA Today ably described Daley’s strategy at the time: “Stick to one theme a week, avoid too many questions from reporters, and make sure every appearance looks good on TV.” (He also quietly raised loads of cash from a network of lawyers and developers that David Moberg dubbed the “new Chicago machine.”)
There are a lot of parallels between that race and today's election. In Chicago, Rahm Emanuel's mayoral victory is a fait acompli at this point; the only real question is whether he reaches the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright tonight or whether he will be forced into a runoff with the second-place vote-getter on April 5. Emanuel has run a steady and sober campaign against an underwhelming batch of contenders. He gained sympathy points from many Chicagoans during the prolonged (and sometimes ridiculous) hearings surrounding his residency. He also brought in a considerable haul early in the cycle (before Illinois’ new campaign finance contribution limits kicked into place), which allowed him to blanket television stations with ads and devote more time down the stretch to meeting potential voters as opposed to donors.
Election officials expect somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of registered voters to participate today, which would be on the higher end for a recent municipal race. (The polls close at 7 p.m. CST.) It’s snowing here, but not like when “The Crippler” hit a few weeks ago, so the weather shouldn’t affect turnout too much. The more folks who vote, the better positioned Emanuel will be; he’s polling well across all portions of the city and the organizations pounding the pavement for another contender, Gery Chico, particularly on the influential Southwest side, will lose some of their influence if the voting pool is deep.
The mayoral race is just one among many that will fundamentally reshape government here. Eleven aldermen are following veteran Mayor Daley out the door, either to retire or switch careers. Several others face decorated challengers and a frustrated electorate. In total, half of the 50-member City Council could be freshmen when the new body convenes. Those rookies will represent a global city facing grave provincial problems: a budget held together by Scotch Tape and prayers, an investment deficit threatening to stunt future growth, and a jobs crisis that predates the Great Recession and is felt acutely in heavily black and Latino neighborhoods.
Emanuel will likely win the city's top job. But it's worth asking why he wants it in the first place.
We will have more on what policies we can expect to see from an Emanuel administration tomorrow. In the meantime, the Sun-Times does a great job of tracking results, so check out their election hub here.
