My post at Greg's today argues that even as support for marriage equality is growing, those opposed are less willing to prioritize the issue:
Support for same-sex marriage in New York varies depending on religion, with white Catholics being evenly divided at 48 percent opposed and 48 percent supporting. But white Catholic voters in New York approve of Governor Andrew Cuomo, who drove passage of th marriage equality bill, is at a nearly 3-1 margin. White Protestant opposition to same-sex marriage is even higher at 54 percent, and yet 60 percent of white Protestants approve of the job Cuomo is doing.
What this suggests is that some of the people opposed to same-sex marriage rights nevertheless support Cuomo anyway. This gets to something I think polling has yet to properly examine — the dwindling importance of same-sex marriage to even those voters who voice opposition to it. The shift towards support for marriage equality isn't just a matter of more people saying they support it. It's also a function of people who are nominally opposed caring less about the issue in general as the inevitability of marriage equality becomes more apparent.
The reason that matters is that even if support for same-sex marriage rights in the near term reaches a ceiling of say, 60 percent, much of the remaining opposition may be softer than polls simply measuring support or opposition might suggest, and therefore less political risk for politicians in supporting marriage equality. LGBT rights activists don't have to convince the entire country to support same-sex marriage rights to win. They will also continue winning, and moving the country inexorably forward, as the opposition itself loses enthusiasm for what is increasingly a lost cause.
National Journal polls "Republican Insiders" and finds most of them would rather avoid talking about the issue.
