NATION�S DEMOCRATIC WAVE ERODING MONTANA BEACHHEAD? The Montana Senate race has tightened up considerably. Democratic candidate Jon Tester enjoyed the early momentum out of the primary election and into October, but incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns has surged to make this race a statistical dead-heat, according to recent polls. (A November 4th Mason/Dixon poll has both candidates at 47 percent; a November 5th poll shows Tester with 50 percent and Burns at 48 percent.) Many pundits scramble to explain why Burns has closed the gap on Tester.
Columnist Robert Novak crows that the Republicans� standby strategy of rousing fears against Democratic tax hikes is driving unsure voters into the arms of their incumbent senator. President Bush�s recent visit to Billings probably rendered many Montanans star struck. After all, it�s not often the nation�s chief executive visits this rural state. And those most antagonized by Bush�s appearance are already likely to support Tester. Still, Bush�s overall approval rating is not high in the state, while, in contrast, the lawmaker actively stumping for the Democrat -- Governor Brian Schweitzer -- is very popular here.
In my opinion, the reason Burns is quickly gaining on his competitor may have to do, ironically, with Democratic successes across the country. Burns� poll numbers started to rise in mid-October, about the same time that news of a likely Democratic sweep akin to the GOP�s 1994 huge election day began to catch hold with mainstream political pundits. Montanans, I believe, aren�t reconsidering Burns because of any sudden change of heart regarding the candidates -- rather, while they�re willing to vote for a plain-talkin� third-generation Montana farmer, they�re not so thrilled about giving more liberal senators leadership positions in a majority party.
Still, some factors will help the Democratic candidate down the stretch. Democratic GOTV efforts this year in the state are impressive. And all of the state�s major newspapers -- the Billings Gazette, the Great Falls Tribune, the Helena Independent Record, Butte�s Montana Standard, Bozeman Chronicle, and the weeklies the Missoula Independent and the Billings Outpost -- have strongly endorsed Tester over Burns.
--Jay Stevens