This one is tougher! Especially after a conference call this morning with David Plouffe, who sounded pleased as he rattled off early vote numbers, which are very high, trending Dem and also contain a high percentage of sporadic or newly registered voters. Plouffe also announced that Obama will be airing ads in Georgia, North Dakota, and Arizona, seeking to push those states — which, though red, hint at Obama support and also have good campaign organization on the ground — into Obama’s win column. But here are some problems that Obama could yet face:
— Apathy on Election Day. People get complacent, don’t go vote. People point at younger voters and newly registered voters for this one. I actually doubt this happens, between Obama’s strong anti-complacency message (and that irritating/effective “CNNBC” video) and the campaign’s strong GOTV operation.
— White panic. White people get in the voting booth, panic about a black man running for president, and don’t vote for him. While there are people who think this will happen, I don’t. America is better than that, hope, etc.
— Rashid Khalidi is the last straw among Obama’s former associates / the L.A.Times videotape will change the election. No one knows who Khalidi, is outside of the media and high-information voters, and an even smaller universe of people cares. The attacks by McCain are reprehensible — “neo-nazi” indeed — but ultimately this is not an election about small stuff. This is a big stuff election.
— McCain’s taxes and socialism message will get him over the top. Maybe, maybe. But as Ambinder notes, his message is … confused. Thus far, it’s unclear that he’s actually closing in the polls, but if he is, he’s not closing fast enough.
–Tim Fernholz