On Wednesday, Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia announced he would not seek a second term. He won in an upset against former Sen. George Allen in 2006 and helped give Democrats control over the Senate. Allen is a likely Republican contender for the seat in 2012, which could be a critical year for Democrats.
To get a handle on this, TAP spoke with Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, about what this means for Democrats in Virginia and on the national level.
Jim Webb won in a big upset that gave Democrats control of the Senate in 2006. But after that, he slid under the radar. For Virginia and the nation at large, how has Webb been significant?
Webb was serious, bold, and moderate all at the same time. At the very beginning of his time in the Senate, he maneuvered the passage of the new GI bill. His efforts to undertake a serious, comprehensive study of the incarceration system was another uncommon move that highlighted an often overlooked issue. He was unafraid to spend his time and political capital on issues that were not seen as obvious political winners, with Burma as just one example. Although his [total] time in office will be short, he certainly achieved a lot for a freshman.
With Webb retiring, what does the Senate field look like in Virginia? Are there are any Democrats on the state-level with the support and recognition necessary to run a Senate campaign against George Allen (assuming he wins the nomination)?
It's Tim Kaine and everybody else. [Former Virginia Congressman] Rick Boucher is not a bad choice if he's willing to run and Kaine isn't. Boucher would be able to put the Southwestern portion of the state in play as no other Democrat could, but he is also well-known and liked among the Democratic faithful and party leadership. It doesn't hurt that he has a healthy balance left in his bank account after his surprising 2010 re-election loss.
What do you think about the liberal idea that former Congressman Tom Perriello should run for Webb's seat? Does he stand a chance in a statewide election?
Perriello would not be the strongest nominee after only a single House term and the 2010 defeat. But as he proved in 2008, he has the ability to score a big upset under ideal circumstances.
Is any of this actually independent of the presidential election in 2012? In other words, does the possibility exist for Obama to win Virginia but Democrats to lose a Senate seat (or the reverse)?
Virginia may well come down to presidential coattails. Democrats still need to field a strong candidate with fundraising ability, but if Obama does well in the state again in 2012, he would likely sweep the Democratic nominee into office as well. If the Republican presidential nominee, whoever that may be, wins Virginia instead, then George Allen will most likely rejoin the Senate, assuming he wins the GOP nomination as now seems likely.
Fast-forward to 2013. What does the Virginia Democratic Party look like? Is the Virginia GOP's current deep bench a sign of longer-term success, or were 2009 and 2010 aberrations from the growing Democratic presence?
To put it simply, Democrats need to win a statewide election for governor again. Given Virginia's unusual history of the "presidential jinx" locking the president's party out of the governor's mansion, however, Democrats probably won't retake the governorship until Obama is out of office.
