As the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Against the United States undertakes two days of public hearings before Congress, it's worth taking a look at that statement critically. In particular, an examination of terrorist incidents over the past few years reveals that there have been more al-Qaeda-linked attacks internationally since September 11 than in the eight years before it.
While it is inarguably the case that the elimination of terrorist training camps in Afghanistan was a serious blow to al-Qaeda and that the absence of Saddam Hussein in Iraq will, if Iraq can be stabilized and turned into a democratic U.S. ally (a big, important "if" at the moment), be of benefit to U.S. interests in the long run, neither of these two changes tells us whether America is actually winning the war against terrorism, as Bush has claimed.
A catalog of attacks linked to al-Qaeda since 9-11, listed at the end of this story, makes it plain that a new approach by terrorists has been in effect and used with increasing frequency by al-Qaeda affiliates over the past two years. Since attacking America on 9-11, al-Qaeda-linked groups and individuals have been involved in at least 15 different attacks. They have hit at groups of Germans (in Tunisia), French (in Karachi, Pakistan), Spaniards (in Madrid), Britons (in Turkey and Bali, Indonesia), Australians (in Bali), Pakistanis (in Pakistan), Turks (in Turkey) Saudis (in Saudi Arabia), and Jews (in Morocco, Turkey, and Tunisia). By contrast, there were about five major terrorist attacks linked to al-Qaeda before 9-11, all but one of which -- the first World Trade Center bombing, in 1993 -- involved assaulting U.S. military or government entities.
If winning a war is not just about capturing the enemy's leaders -- and, with Osama bin Laden still at large, we have not even accomplished that -- but also about the cessation of hostilities and capitulation of the other side, the evidence to date suggests not a group "on the run," as Bush likes to say, but rather an escalating conflict with an adaptable organization that is increasingly geographically dispersed, highly active, and systematically targeting U.S. allies.
"Some two-thirds of al-Qaeda's key leaders have been captured or killed. The rest of them hear us breathing down their neck," the president told Department of Homeland Security employees on March 2. But that may not be as important as it once was. There may have been a moment in time when if you cut off the head, the snake would die. According to al-Qaeda expert Peter Bergen, author of Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden, though, "If there was a time, it was Tora Bora," the pivotal battle in the 2001 Afghanistan war in which al-Qaeda's leadership slipped from America's grasp. But more than two years later, the group is a hydra-headed monster that has allied itself with local terrorist groups and militias around the world. "The train is long out of the station," says Bergen. "This isn't the Gambino crime family; it's an ideological movement."
Certainly, the changing nature of the terrorist threat was already apparent in mid-2002, when CNN reported that "al-Qaeda members who fled Afghanistan after the U.S.-led counterterrorism offensive began last fall are forming what anti-terror coalition intelligence analysts are calling 'super cells' in locations stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia. According to sources, the new 'super cells' operate on their own without guidance from the men who once trained and directed them. The sources also said the groups have the capability to launch frequent small- and medium-scale attacks -- assassinations, bombings, and attacks -- on places where Westerners congregate, such as tourist destinations."
A year and a half after those words were written, that capability has been well demonstrated. "The fact that there have been additional attacks since 9-11 is an indicator that this is hardly a broken or incapacitated entity," says Michele Flournoy, an international-security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "While it is true that we have put pressure on certain known al-Qaeda leaders and cells and made it more difficult for them to operate, it is also true that al-Qaeda has shown itself to be a highly adaptable network. It is not a hierarchical organization; it is a network of networks. It is now a network of loosely affiliated groups who do things in the name of al-Qaeda or the spirit of al-Qaeda."
The enemy we face today is not the enemy that attacked us on 9-11. The threat is more broadly dispersed and more internationally embedded. Attacks require less elaborate preparation, tend to be against softer targets, and can be carried out with less planning. They are not even necessarily centrally coordinated.
"It's further evolved," says Flournoy of al-Qaeda. "It's always been a network, but now it's a bigger network, a looser network, with more organizations involved, and more are coming online .There's certainly no question that if you look at that network broadly, there's still a great deal of capability out there."
Meanwhile, a triumphalist domestic rhetoric of success is obscuring the reality of the international threat, in which a metastasized al-Qaeda has spread from a onetime center in Afghanistan out across the world, where it is allying itself with local insurgent groups, terrorist sympathizers, and the politically aggrieved.
On March 2, President Bush declared , "We're winning the war on terror." The bombing of Madrid just nine days later should call that claim into question, especially because the evidence to date suggests that this attack differed only in magnitude from the smaller attacks that preceded it internationally in the past two years.
Just as the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000, which killed 17 American sailors, preceded the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001, which killed 2,973, smaller attacks over the past few years have shown the persistent intent and capacity of al-Qaeda cells and affiliates and cannot be taken as evidence that future attacks will not again kill thousands. Al-Qaeda has historically taken its time planning the spectacular simultaneous attacks that have become its calling card, spending five years planning the 1998 embassy bombings in Africa and close to three years preparing for September 11, Bergen says.
Another attack on U.S. soil may already be in the works. "We do remain the principal target, and these people have a huge amount of patience," says Bergen. "It's only a matter of time."
Here's a list of suspected al-Qaeda terrorist attacks, as modified Prospect conversations with experts on al-Qaeda and news reports:
- February 1993: Bombing of World Trade Center; six killed and 1,040 injured.
- October 1993: Killing of 18 U.S. soldiers in Mogadishu, Somalia.
- November 1995: Truck bombing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia kills five American soldiers and injures 37.
- June 1996: Truck bombing at Khobar Towers military barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, kills 19 Americans and injures hundreds, including 240 U.S. citizens. (The al-Qaeda connection here remains a subject of debate.)
- August 1998: Bombing of U.S. embassies in east Africa; 224 killed, including 12 Americans, and an estimated 4,500 injured.
- October 2000: Bombing of the USS Cole in a Yemen port; 17 U.S. sailors killed, 39 injured.
- September 2001: Destruction of World Trade Center; Pentagon attacked. Total dead: 2,973.
- April 2002: Explosion at historic synagogue in Tunisia leaves 21 dead, including 14 German tourists.
- January 2002: Kidnapping and murder of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.
- May 2002: Car explodes outside Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, Pakistan, killing 14, including 11 French naval engineers.
- June 2002: Bomb explodes outside U.S. Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, killing 12.
- October 2002: Nightclub bombings in Bali, Indonesia, kill 202, including 88 Australian citizens and 23 Britons.
- November 2002: Coordinated attacks in Mombasa, Kenya; 16 killed in a suicide bombing at a hotel, while surface-to-air missiles were fired at a chartered Israeli airliner.
- May 2003: Suicide bombers kill 34, including eight Americans, at housing compounds for Westerners in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
- May 2003: Four bombs targeting Jewish, Spanish, and Belgian sites in Casablanca, Morocco, killing 33 and injuring more than 100.
- August 2003: Suicide car bomb kills 12, injures 150, at Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia.
- November 2003: Explosions rock a Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, housing compound, killing 18 and wounding 122, including many workers from Egypt and Lebanon.
- November 2003: Suicide car bombers simultaneously attack two synagogues in Istanbul, Turkey, killing 25 and injuring hundreds.
- November 2003: Two truck bombs explode outside the British consulate and the headquarters of the London-based HSBC bank in Istanbul, Turkey, killing 26 and injuring hundreds.
- December 2003: Attempted assassination of Pakistani President Pervez Musharaff.
- March 2004: Train bombing in Madrid, Spain, kills 190 and injures more than 1,000.
So there were at least five major attacks linked to groups or individuals affiliated with al-Qaeda in the eight years before 9-11, and there have been at least 15 such attacks in the two and a half years since then.
There have also been a number of foiled major plots over the years, and perhaps innumerable smaller ones that never were reported in the press. Before 9-11, the list includes such major plots as the one to blow up Los Angeles International Airport (December 1999); a foiled attack on millennium celebrations at an American hotel in Amman, Jordan, in December 1999; an attempted hijacking of an Indian airliner (1999); and the pre-USS Cole bombing plot against the USS The Sullivans (January 2000). After 9-11, Jose Padilla's plan -- at an unclear level of maturity -- to obtain and use a dirty bomb was foiled with his arrest (June 2002), as was "shoe bomber" Richard Reid's attempt to blow up an American Airlines flight from Paris to Miami(December 2001) and a group of terrorists' plan to bomb the American Embassy in Paris (fall 2001). So, too, were the plot to bomb U.S. and British warships off Gibraltar (June 2002) and attempts in Saudi Arabia to target U.S. transport planes with rocket-propelled grenades (August 2003).
In addition to these accomplished and foiled attacks around the world, there is the ongoing, escalating problem of suicide bombings and other acts of terrorism in Iraq. U.S. military personnel have publicly linked many of the attacks to al-Qaeda-affiliated individuals and groups, including Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
From The Associated Press last week:
SKANDARIYAH, Iraq -- Thousands of people in Iraq have suffered from suicide bombings -- a phenomenon unknown here until after the U.S.-led war toppled Saddam Hussein's regime nearly a year ago.The cycle began nine days after fighting erupted, and has claimed at least 660 lives -- far more than in 3 1/2 years of Israel-Palestinian suicide attacks -- according to U.S. military officials.
The majority of victims are Iraqis, the U.S. military said. Iraqi officials and police put the death toll higher by at least 100.
In the past year, there have been at least 24 suicide bombings, including four where more than one attacker struck at the same target, according to an Associated Press tally and interviews with officials.
***
U.S. and Iraqi officials have blamed [al-Qaeda]-affiliated groups for some attacks -- offering little proof, but saying their methods conformed with the terror network's tendency to stage spectacular operations.
***
Analysts warn against hastily accusing [al-Qaeda] of masterminding the attacks, and point out that several groups, both religious and secular, have much to benefit from the bombings.
There have been so many attacks on civilians and Iraqi authorities -- in addition to the daily attacks on U.S. and coalition forces -- that it can be hard to recall all that Iraq has undergone in the past year. Helpfully, the AP has compiled a list entitled "Worst Iraq Suicide Attacks Since War Began."
Looking at the Iraq attacks shows that, in addition to going after Americans themselves, Iraqi insurgents and al-Qaeda affiliates have systematically gone after America's allies there, including:
The Jordanians. Their embassy in Iraq was bombed on August 7, 2003.
The United Nations. Its Baghdad headquarters was bombed on August 19.
Shiite religious leaders. The Ayatollah Sayid Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim was killed when a mosque was bombed in An Najaf on August 29.
The
International Red Cross and Red Crescent Society. Its headquarters and three Iraqi
police stations were bombed on October 27.
Iraqi politicians. Baghdad's deputy mayor, Faris Abdul Razzaq al-Assam, was assassinated on November 14.
The Italians. A truck bomb tore apart the headquarters of the Italian military police in Nasiriyah on November 19.
The
Kurds. The Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headquarters in Arbil, Iraq, were bombed on February 1.
New Iraqi army recruits. A
car bomb exploded outside a recruiting station in Baghdad on February 12.
New Iraqi police. They
were attacked in Iskandariyah, among other places.
Shia
worshippers. Shia worshippers celebrating the Ashoura holiday in Iraq for the first time in 30 years were killed in bombings in Baghdad and Karbala on March 2.
Western hotels. The Mount Lebanon Hotel in Baghdad was bombed on March 17, and according to CNN, "A U.S. counterterrorism official, speaking on the condition of
anonymity, said al-Qaeda-linked Jordanian Islamic militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is
among those suspected of playing a key role."
Garance Franke-Ruta is a Prospect senior editor.
