Last week, a NY Times/CBS poll found that 81 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and now, according to this Pew survey, 56 percent of Republicans agree. Obviously, if voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, then it stands to reason that they will be inclined to vote for the candidate that best represents a break with that direction. My question is whether Republicans voters consider John McCain to be that agent of change.
Leave aside McCain's tenuous relationship with conservatives for the moment and put yourself in the shoes of registered Republican voter. Does McCain represent a break with Bush? From this point of view the best you could probably say about him is that he is more competent than Bush, but it would take a serious mental leap to say he is different from Bush (particularly in the legacy-defining arena of foreign policy). And how much is voter loyalty going to be a factor when you go to pull that lever? If there are defections, do they spill over to Libertarian, Constitution, and other third parties or do a significant number go over to the Democrats? The latter, of course, would be a tentative electoral realignment (tentative until confirmed by the following election) whereas the former scenario would demonstrate a formal shattering of the conservative coalition. What emerges from that is anyone's guess but it would in the short term reduce the GOP brand to an electoral minority.
--Mori Dinauer
