WHY I'M NOT WRITING ON THE IMMIGRATION BILL. The folks at The Corner seem pretty sure the immigration bill is going to pass cloture, largely through the pay-to-play (vote for cloture in order to offer your amendment) deal that Reid worked out. My strategy, however, is to ignore the bill. We need to see how these amendments play out, judge what the final product looks like, and then see how the final vote goes. Now that I've actually done some of it, I'm less and less enamored of pre-vote, predictive reportage. Soon enough, we'll know what the bill looks like, and that'll be the time to discuss its worth.
For now, it's useful to note that the bill is actually very unpopular, even as Americans continue to express support for the actual policies it contains. This happens every so often with major legislation -- both the Clinton health plan and Social Security privatization exhibited this disconnect -- wherein the people turn on the bill without actually disagreeing with its mechanisms or aims.