Tim Fernholz

While it’s not the best way to analyze the financial-reform bill, it’s worth noting that the financial industry is taking out its anger over the legislation by giving Democratic politicians less money — 65 percent less than during the 2008 elections: The overwhelming factor is the rising anger among financial executives who think they have […]

Make sure that this article doesn’t get swallowed up in the Independence Day news-hole — it is critical to understanding the ongoing debate over whether U.S. economic policy should favor fiscal expansion or consolidation. One worthwhile observation is that the former Clinton economic advisers who frequently face progressive skepticism are the same officials making the […]

This morning, Steve Pearlstein criticized plans to give aid to states before offering his preferred vision of the process: To me, it suggests that the policy goal should be focused less on short-term stimulus than on closing the states’ structural budget deficits. States that take credible steps to close the gap over the next few […]

When trying to determine how economists failed to predict and address the financial crisis, Paul Krugman offered an extensive critique of “fresh water economists” associated with the University of Chicago, whom he describes as “neoclassical purists.” We associate these economists with the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), the theory that markets reflect the best information that […]

Graphing the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate. June’s employment report is in: Total number of jobs decreased by 121,000 last month, the first decrease since last December, due to the termination of 225,000 temporary census worker jobs. Some 83,000 new jobs were created by the private sector. The overall unemployment rate slid to 9.5 percent, and […]

There’s been a lot of talk this week about the latest long-term forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, but stories headlined “CBO tells Obama deficit panel that forecast remains bleak” are a little off the mark. As Matt Yglesias and the above graph point out, if Congress does nothing, we’ll be fine, debt-wise. Of course, […]

Felix Salmon has a good take on the continuing importance of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, which is meeting today to talk derivatives — watch them grill regulators and finance execs live. Salmon hopes that the FCIC’s report will provide a hopefully nonpartisan agenda for future reform, and while that’s an ideal outcome, I agree […]

Yesterday I stopped by a presentation given by Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, where they argued that mobilization is key to protecting the Democratic majorities in 2010. According to their survey, 53 percent of voters identify as Democratic — the challenge is turning them out, as the above graph suggests. Their findings also suggest that […]

Chairman Barney Frank and Speaker Nancy Pelosi have done it: Last night, the financial-reform overhaul passed the House of Representatives 237 to 192. Three Republicans crossed party lines to join the Democrats, while a handful of conservative Democrats did the reverse. The numbers make it seem like an overwhelming vote, but it actually only represents […]