Will Biden Finally Break With Bibi?

Today on TAP: That would do the whole world a giant service—including Israel. Biden’s own re-election could depend on it.

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President Biden and those who care about the survival of American democracy have gotten some hopeful news in recent days. Nikki Haley’s campaign appears to be damaging Trump. It’s getting under his skin and making him even more demented, nicely proving her point.

Meanwhile, the $83 million damage award for defaming E. Jean Carroll, after raping her, reminds women of what a total louse Trump is. It’s hard to imagine him getting much of the women’s vote outside of hardcore MAGA country.

Trump’s slippage shows up in the latest Quinnipiac poll, especially among women. The January 31 poll shows Biden leading Trump, 50 to 44 overall, but with a widening gender gap of 58 for Biden to just 36 for Trump. And consumer confidence is up 27 points.

Meanwhile, the MAGA crowd have decided to demonize two cultural icons of mainstream America, the most popular pop singer in memory and her football star boyfriend. You couldn’t pick a better strategy for MAGA to self-isolate.

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But all of these gains could make little difference as long as the Israel-Gaza conflict is a festering mess, sponsored and funded by the U.S., that splits the Democratic Party and alienates younger voters and voters of color. However, there may be good news on that front as well.

Benjamin Netanyahu has put impossible conditions on the multilateral plan brokered by the U.S. and key Arab leaders for an extended cease-fire in exchange for a hostage release. So Biden and his top foreign-policy officials have begun saying publicly what they should have said long ago. If details can be worked out with key Arab nations and Hamas, the U.S. will formally recognize a Palestinian state.

At a Wednesday press briefing, State Department spokesman Matt Miller confirmed that the administration is “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state—with real security guarantees for Israel, because we do believe that is the best way to bring about lasting peace and security for Israel, for Palestinians, and for the region.” The British government has also said explicitly that the U.K. is prepared to recognize a Palestinian state.

However, Netanyahu has made clear that he is unalterably opposed to a Palestinian state in any form. So if Biden goes ahead with this idea, it will be without the participation of the Israeli government. That isolation will signal a devastating defeat for Netanyahu and hasten his ouster. The Israeli public is ambivalent about a Palestinian state depending on the specifics, but overwhelmingly in favor of ousting Bibi.

The harder part, of course, will be devising a stable governing arrangement for the West Bank and Gaza. It would need to include the active participation of major Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the Emirates, all enemies of Iran, as well as Hamas.

If Biden can pull off some progress toward regional stabilization and rebuilding of Gaza, he can not only stabilize the region but unify his party. Israel would then have to decide how to participate. Oust Netanyahu and a successor government will surely want to be part of the deliberations. As part of the grand bargain, the U.S. would have to guarantee Israel’s survival.

One other benefit, long overdue, would be the sidelining of AIPAC. The Israel lobby has long intimidated U.S. presidents into taking the position of Israel right or wrong.

But most American Jews are appalled by how Bibi is not just killing Palestinian civilians but jeopardizing Israel’s own survival and serving as a lightning rod for antisemitism. AIPAC also supports center-right Democrats against Biden progressives. AIPAC is no friend of Biden.

By breaking with both AIPAC and Netanyahu, Biden would win far more support than he would lose, in Israel and in America.

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