After canceling an earlier planned meeting with top Democrats on government funding negotiations, Trump has agreed to meet with all four House and Senate leaders of both parties at 2 p.m. today. The meeting came after Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called Republican Leader John Thune (R-SD) and urged him to contact Trump. The meeting will also be attended by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
With Trump demanding a clean resolution to continue current funding levels and Democrats united in their refusal, backed by a Senate filibuster, there are several ways to handicap what’s coming. In one view, the Democrats have belatedly achieved some unity, resolve, and political shrewdness around a set of demands whose core is restoration of full funding for Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, as well as a commitment to no further illegal impoundments of appropriated funds.
In this view, the Democrats have split Trump from congressional Republicans, especially in swing districts, who are vulnerable to the charge of slashing government health insurance subsidies, which in turn creates premium hikes across the health care system. The Democrats have been running ads against ten vulnerable Republicans, holding them responsible for higher health care costs. A dozen House Republicans are on record opposing Medicaid cuts.
In this view, the Democrats have the stronger hand and are playing it well. They will look even better if they force Republicans to capitulate.
However, a very different reading suggests that Trump still holds most of the cards. The Supreme Court just handed him a major victory on Friday by ruling 6-3 that the president has the authority to withhold appropriated funds. The particular issue was $4 billion in foreign aid. The high court set aside a September 3 ruling from Judge Amir H. Ali of the federal district court in Washington, compelling the administration to spend the funds.
In what has become a pattern, the Supreme Court’s abbreviated order was technically just a delay in response to an “emergency” appeal. The Court allowed Trump to withhold the funds, and disingenuously said that its order was not a definitive ruling on the underlying constitutional question. Of course, after the fiscal year ends on September 30, authorization to spend the withheld funds disappears.
Armed with this court order, Trump could cynically agree to Democrats’ demands and then just impound whatever money he doesn’t like. Any budget deal would be a farce, and Trump would have once again nullified Congress. Cuts can’t be restored if they are unspent, after all.
As citizens felt the impact of the cuts, however, that ploy could harm Republicans in Congress. It would not be the first time; Trump cares more about the thrill of exercising his own power.
Alternatively, Trump could just stonewall and hope that Democrats take the fall for any government shutdown. His plan, revealed in a public letter by the Office of Management and Budget, is to threaten another round of mass layoffs of public workers, which would affect everything from Social Security to the National Park Service and other public-facing agencies that are already stretched thin. Trump has already been shutting down the government selectively and can decide what to keep open.
Yet another variant is a brief shutdown, with the high drama of continuing negotiations and then a compromise restoration of some health funding. That would blur responsibility for the cuts and then allow both sides to claim victory. It may well be in Trump’s interest to let this go at least one more round, before agreeing to a deal and then claiming credit as the great dealmaker.
It’s a fine fiscal mess. Only one thing is certain. Trump will do whatever he thinks will be best, not for his party or his country, but for Trump.