
Evan Vucci/AP Photo
President Donald Trump holds a signed executive order on deregulation in the Oval Office of the White House, January 31, 2025, in Washington.
Democratic leaders sound understandably cautious when talking about whether President Donald Trump has a mandate, or what steps Democrats should take now. They are respecting the voters who put Trump back in office, and they recognize the elites have gotten a lot of hot-button issues wrong.
We will have no clue about the Trump mandate or what Democrats should do, of course, unless we are frank about what happened with Joe Biden and what changes voters want. Major parts of the mandate will help Trump, but failure to deliver change will hurt. And other parts of Trump’s agenda insult voters in ways that will push down his already unimpressive approval ratings.
Knowing what happened starts with knowing voters were more fearful of “Biden continuing as President” than “Trump winning a second term.” A 53 percent majority in a Democracy Corps survey felt that. And that majority grew to 54 percent after seeing all the Trump attacks.
More from Stanley B. Greenberg
President Joe Biden gave an upbeat account of his progress, but he was deeply and singularly unpopular. About 60 percent disapproved of his presidency in our November election poll. And other polls have shown his approval and favorability decline further as he left office in January.
Kamala Harris ran much worse with working-class voters than Biden did in 2020, but his approval in our November poll was below her vote. His support was eroding further. And how do you get a strong vote in the base when 37 percent of Blacks, 56 percent of Hispanics, and 59 percent of white millennials disapproved of Biden on Election Day?
According to Gallup, 3 in 5 Americans thought the country “lost ground” under Biden on debt, immigration, crime, the economy, “the gap between the wealthy and less well-off,” and “United States’ position in the world.”
What is so difficult for all of us to process is that Trump has a mandate to fix where Biden failed on the border, the economy, crime in cities, and certain aspects of the woke agenda. Those actions will help Trump.
But voters’ disappointment with Biden also included not helping the middle class enough or addressing inequality. Trump has no mandate to exploit all energy sources and reverse Biden’s climate policies. He has no mandate to put the oligarchs in the White House. And contrary to Trump’s actions, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is very popular with the public.
In my survey for Democracy Corps, I asked what are the most important reasons you voted for President Trump?

And then, I asked what are the most important reasons why you opposed Kamala Harris?



Trump’s top mandate is to secure the open border and deport undocumented immigrants in our cities
We examined many possible reasons to vote for Trump, but nothing came close to support for his commitment to “secure the border and deport illegal immigrants.” The same is true in the reasons to vote against Harris. Nothing is close to the “open border and illegal immigrants in all our cities.” These are each 10 to 20 points above the next reason cited.
Over 70 percent of white working-class men, women, and union households give it as the top reason to vote for Trump—about 20 points above the next reason.
Democratic leaders need to understand that this mandate is also the very top reason Hispanics voted for Trump and against Harris. They are not looking for “comprehensive immigration reform” or policies that “solve the problem.” Fully 64 percent chose that Trump would “secure the border and deport illegal immigrants,” and 54 percent rejected Harris because of the “open border and illegal immigrants in our cities.”
Blacks and Hispanics were angry that non-citizens were competing for housing, schools, and health services in their cities. And they were already much more likely to say that “crime and homelessness in the cities” should be a top priority.
Democrats may be paying a price already. They get their most Fs from voters on “prioritizing citizens over non-citizens.”
Trump also has a very strong mandate to get prices down and address the cost of living
Voters also supported Trump because “his economy was good for me with low inflation,” and were against Harris because of “prices and the cost-of-living being so high.”
What is interesting is that our base groups—Blacks, Asians, white Gen Z, and millennials—put Trump’s economy as “good for me” above or at parity with securing the border. Many of these voters broke for Trump at the end.
President Biden, like so many other leaders, tried to define America’s economy by the number of jobs, low unemployment, and real income gains in the last year, as well as his long-term industrial strategy.
But for voters, inflation was all that mattered. It had a cumulative effect that makes people ever more desperate. As Biden left office, prices for energy and shelter were up about 25 percent above when he came in. Home prices were up 40 percent and even more in many battleground states.
As we have seen, voters are pretty unforgiving when leaders don’t get prices down. The projections for next year are slight rises in prices and sustained high interest rates pervade household credit card debt and the cost of housing.
I think Trump will pay a price almost immediately for focusing more on DEI, Greenland, and Panama than getting prices down. Many of the Democratically inclined voters who voted for Trump were very focused on his economy being better for them.
Trump has a mandate on tariffs on products from China, but they may be broader
The tariff debate probably ended up hurting Democrats. The Harris campaign was ineffectual in giving voters a reason to vote for her. Just 30 percent of those who voted for or considered Harris flagged “Trump’s tariffs on all products would raise the cost of living.” But that was dwarfed by the 53 percent who said Trump being “a fascist and threat to democracy” was the primary reason.
Trump spoke often of his tariffs on products from China and his intention to raise them again, and a majority of voters respond warmly to them. That makes them an important mandate, even though it did not get a high rank as a reason to vote for Trump. I just think the control of the border, deporting illegal immigrants, and prices sucked up the responses in reasons to support Trump.
And the warm and intense responses to tariffs are asymmetric. The white working-class men and women who are 45 percent of the electorate give it a net +39 (68 to 29 percent) and +22 warm response (56 to 34 percent), respectively. White union households, Gen Z, millennials, and Hispanics are marginally positive. The cool margins with Blacks, Asians, and white college and unmarried women do not balance the positive response to the China tariffs.
We tested reaction to just the word “tariff.” The intense and warm reaction with the white working-class men and women and union households leads you to question the wisdom of Democrats continuing to engage the issue. Hispanics and white Gen Z and millennials split evenly.

Given the results on tariffs on China and his seeking to secure the border, I would not assume Trump will be hurt by his announcing the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, unless of course it produces a trade war that raises the cost of living. This one will immediately push up prices, grain products, food, housing, oil and cars.
Trump has a mandate on changing the government’s “liberal woke policies” and transgender policies
Here, look at the next cluster of reasons to vote against Harris. They are dominated by “too liberal,” “ultra-left,” and “promotes transgender operations and competition in sports.” The last got a lot of mentions by moderate Democrats and Blacks.
Over two-thirds of white union households, white college women, Blacks, and Hispanics favor banning transgender individuals in sports, with over half of each feeling it very strongly.
Other polls show a majority of 55 percent favors setting two genders in law.

Broad segments of the electorate think this, including college and suburban women, Hispanics and Blacks, and even over 60 percent of white Gen Z oppose. And it is a factor in the intensity of the white working-class reaction where almost three-quarters oppose.
I don’t fully understand the intensity of reaction, but I’m too outside what is clearly common sense and current norms.
Trump has a mandate to address crime and homelessness in the cities
Trump made illegal immigrants the face of violent crime. In his words, other countries gave us their murderers and rapists. And Congress just enacted the Laken Riley Act, to detain any immigrants accused of a crime.
The top worry on Election Day if Harris won was of “crime and homelessness being out of control in the cities and the violence killing police and small business.” Trump had a margin of 14 points on who would better handle crime. Fully 44 percent strongly preferred Trump on handling crime.
Democrats have a long way to go on being seen to respect police and show a commitment to safe communities and cities.
Trump has a mandate to see America as exceptional but not for barring DEI
DEI got a boost in government and business in the reactions to the year of Black Lives Matter protests. Republicans successfully capitalized on these protests by depicting them as violent, and Democratic leaders rarely condemned looting and attacks on police. (Of course, that year ended with MAGA protesters attacking police at the Capitol.)
But President Biden campaigned in 2020 by promising to make “Black Lives Matter” in his new government. He committed to addressing the legacy of racial injustice and slavery. And when Black voters were failing to support Biden, he gave speeches and put up ads that focused on promises kept. Biden’s last foreign trip was to Africa.
That reinforced a Democratic embrace of “identity politics” that saw all groups through that fragmented experience. But most important, it was part of an elite view that was much more critical of America and its progress than the Democrats’ diverse base.. It was pessimistic about the future.
The Harris campaign became trapped in it, even though she sometimes articulated a more unifying vision.
Trump, unfortunately, does have a mandate for reclaiming our history from that pessimism. Unfortunately, their vision is even more pessimistic about the country, starting with its criticism of DEI.
But Trump does not have a mandate to purge DEI throughout the government. “Working to make America more diverse, equitable and inclusive” gets a warm response from 51 percent, with just 37 percent cool. Over 70 percent of Blacks and white Gen Z are warm and about 60 percent of Asians, and white unmarried women. In most groups, over 40 percent are very warm to these efforts. White working-class men are the only group opposed.

Where Trump has no mandate
Trump also has no mandate to put fossil fuel executives in charge of energy policy, to “drill, baby, drill,” or to end Biden’s climate policies. We asked whether the following was a factor in your vote for Trump: “Will exploit all our energy, stop shift to EVs, and reverse Biden’s climate policies.” It was second from the bottom, chosen by only 10 percent.
Measures to prevent climate change get a two-to-one warm versus cool response with voters.
Trump should have paid attention to voters who were disappointed that Biden lost ground on addressing the gap between the most fortunate and the rest of us. In Vice President Vance’s Republican convention speech, he told listeners this election is about “who we’re fighting for” in contrast to the “out-of-touch politicians” who “are destroying their jobs.” And “we need a leader who’s not in the pocket of big business.”
The visual of Trump surrounded by America’s high-tech billionaires was not a good look. We also asked voters’ gut reaction to “working to reduce economic inequality.”

Trump began his presidency with a blizzard of changes from the Biden administration. Democrats need to understand why and give Trump space to secure the border and lawfully deport many undocumented. They need to prioritize American citizens. They should make clear Democrats support tariffs that help American workers facing unfair trade practices. They should support measures that fight crime and homelessness and support the police in their cities. They should reject the woke policies that put Democrats outside the common sense of our country.
While it may seem unlikely now, these issues—like welfare at an earlier time—may become less salient after Trump acts on them.
The cost of living will become more salient, particularly after the trade war with Canada and Mexico.
And Trump betraying the voters who are looking for very different policies on energy and climate change, diversity, equity, and inclusion, economic equality, unchecked billionaires, and oligarchic power will put Trump on the defensive.