Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call, Rich Pedroncelli via AP Photo
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), left, and Democratic California Assemblyman Rudy Salas
The Central Valley of California, insofar as ordinary Americans think about it at all, is generally known for its extensive farmland and withering heat, not its political strife. (It grows about 40 percent of all American fruit and nuts.) Yet in a midterm election with consequences that may resonate for decades, one of a few competitive House races in California is right here in this fertile stretch of land, in the 22nd District.
Though their prospects in the U.S. Senate look reasonably good, Democrats still need to keep 218 seats in the midterms to maintain control of the House. If they lose either chamber, there will be no more progress on the Democratic agenda, and likely a lot of government shutdowns or standoffs over the debt ceiling. With the margin of control likely to be slim, everything may hinge on this rural California valley.
The race in the 22nd District is between Democrat Rudy Salas, a ten-year member of California’s State Assembly, and incumbent Republican David Valadao (who is currently representing the 21st District, but most of the same area is now in the 22nd thanks to redistricting).
The voters in CA-22 are well aware of the stakes, and they have placed their bets with the Democratic Party many times before. But there’s a disconnect between the voters, their representatives, and the national parties. Despite the economic importance of the general area, almost none of the Valley’s biggest issues play out on the national level. Historically left behind by both parties, the fate of the agenda now rests, at least partially, on the backs of San Joaquin Valley voters.
The Central Valley of California is broken up into two valleys—Sacramento to the north, and San Joaquin to the south. Sacramento Valley is the seat of the state legislature and has been solidly majority-Democratic for decades. Whether the voters of the San Joaquin Valley (which contains CA-22) will pull for Democrats this midterm, however, remains to be seen.
As a result, donations are pouring into both campaigns.
It may seem that Valadao has an uphill battle, and that is not entirely wrong. The redistricting that was completed last year pushed CA-22 more Democratic. The district went for President Biden by 11 points in 2020, but, according to Politico’s predictions, the new lines that were established in late 2021 would have given Biden two more points. According to FiveThirtyEight, the district has a Democratic lean of ten points going into the midterms.
But this hardly hands the election to Salas. Valadao is one of ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, and one of two House Republicans to survive the resulting far-right primary challenge. He has struck a chord with the voters throughout his decade-long tenure (aside from a single loss in 2018), relating through his roots in the district, as he was born in the San Joaquin Valley city of Hanford. And the district has historically suffered from low Democratic turnout. The race therefore remains competitive, and may hinge on whether Democrats will turn their attention to the issues of this district in order to increase turnout.
The politicking of the national parties is consistently out of step with the tangible issues the residents in this area face.
Recent years have increased the jadedness and economic stress of many residents. I have lived in Hanford for a year, and have moved around the larger Valley throughout my life. This area relies on agriculture and the labor of Latinos, who make up 60 percent of the residents, to maintain it. Climate change and inflation have hit the area hard, driving up gas and food prices, as well as depleting the groundwater that many rural residents need to survive. Summers are steadily more brutal as climate change worsens, with temperatures consistently hitting three digits during the heat wave this year.
In addition, abortion access remains a hot issue in the area. In 2019, Kings County in CA-22 made headlines after the (since-ousted) district attorney Keith Fagundes brought charges against women who had had stillbirths. After Dobbs, this history was seen as a grim predictor for what was to come post-Roe, despite the county being nestled in a state attempting to constitutionally protect abortion rights.
“The residents of California’s 22nd Congressional District are struggling as a result of sky-high prices for groceries, gas, and prescription medications—but massive corporations continue to rake in record profits,” said Brian VanRiper from Unrig Our Economy, a campaign placing anti-Valadao billboards down State Route 198. He continued, “Unfortunately their representative in Congress, David Valadao, has made it clear he’s more concerned with protecting the profits of those out-of-touch corporations and the ultra-rich than lowering costs for his constituents.” Valadao also voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, which is solidly popular among voters.
Salas seems to be aware of the need to focus on these pertinent issues for Valley voters in order to win, as well as the potential consequences of his loss. “This race will decide whether we have the votes to protect access to reproductive healthcare, further lower drug prices, and pass tax cuts for working families,” Salas told me in a statement.
“I am running to be the first Latino elected to Congress from the Central Valley because we not only deserve someone who looks like us representing the most heavily Latino district in the country, but someone who fights for lower prescription drug prices and safer drinking water,” Salas also said.
Still, Salas is, as CalMatters puts it, “one of the Capitol’s more business-friendly Democrats.” He has also annoyed his fellow California Democrats—in 2017, he voted against a measure to raise the gas tax to fund road maintenance and transit, and lost his position as chair of the Assembly’s Business and Professions Committee as a result.
The uncertainty of how the voters will digest this information and subsequently vote has led both parties to flood the race with money. According to calculations by Rob Pyers, research director of the California Target Book, the $6 million poured into this race already is second among House races in spending from official party campaign committees.
Money is unlikely to be the deciding factor for many voters here. The politicking of the national parties is consistently out of step with the tangible issues the residents in this area face. The voters here seem to care less about which party represents them than they do about what they perceive that party will do for them—the foil of the two-party system. Tackling this, and winning the race, will require Democrats to communicate a clear message of intent and compassion.
And if they don’t, their prospects will depend on how well Valadao does it instead. “If [Valadao] ultimately loses, it may be because voters aren’t satisfied with his answers on these issues,” VanRiper said.
