Blog: Beat the Press

Last quarter the markets were surprised by a stronger than expected number for personal consumption expenditures in March. I commented that the surprise was surprising because March personal consumption expenditures were embedded in the first quarter GDP data that had been released the prior week.Here’s a chance to look for more surprising surprises. The consensus […]

Apparently the reporters at MarketWatch can’t. An article noting the uptick in labor compensation reported in the second quarter Employment Cost Index reported that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that higher labor costs need not lead to inflation, if they are offset by rising productivity. Well, in the very next sentence Mr. Bernanke also said […]

The House came up with the brilliant idea of linking the partial repeal of the estate tax with raising the minimum wage. In the words of West Virginia Representative Shelley Moore Capito, this linkage made sense because, “the sustaining of small businesses by keeping their vital assets will allow those making the minimum wage to […]

The weak second quarter GDP numbers were driven in part by the housing sector as noted in the NYT. See also the separate piece on the housing market. In addition to the GDP data, the Commerce Department also released data on vacancy rates for the second quarter. The vacancy rate for ownership units hit a […]

Remember the inverted yield curve and the hoola hoop? A few months back, the prospect of an inverted yield curve was seen as an ominous warning sign of bad times ahead. An inverted yield curve was supposed to signal an upcoming recession. This seems worth mentioning now because the yield curve is becoming seriously inverted […]

Reporters should always use inflation adjusted numbers when making comparisons of dollar values at substantially different points in time. A dollar is worth much less today than it was 20 or 30 years ago. While most readers may know this, they do not typically have ready access to the consumer price index tables, so they […]

If we use protectionist barriers to artificially prop up health care prices in the United States, then people go overseas for health care. It’s extremely wasteful (it’s much cheaper and better for people’s health to have the medical procedures done here), but that is what happens when you have protectionism. –Dean Baker

Several comments and e-mails on my last post on trade expressed confusion about restrictions on highly educated foreign workers in the United States. (There was one complaint about repetition, as long as the press repeats the error, I will repeat the complaint.) These restrictions take two forms. The first is formal licensing restrictions. The highest […]

The latest numbers certainly show a slowing. Existing home sales are down by 10 percent from their peaks last year. Prices have stabilized on a year over year basis (down slightly after adjusting for inflation), and inventories are building. It is worth noting in the latest report that the inventory of unsold condos stood at […]

It would be nice if reporters were forced to read what they write before it appears in the paper. What do they mean when they say “free trade?” What makes increasing patent and copyright protection (an essential part of recent U.S. trade agreements) free trade? These are government granted monopolies. Isn’t that obvious? Yes, they […]