Blog: The Monkey Cage

Alas, this topic is becoming a series. Jonathan Martin: Unemployment is over 8 percent. Nearly 60 percent of Americans, according to a new poll, believe the country is on the wrong track. The number of people on food stamps is at a historic high and the median net worth of American families is at a […]

While John and his commenters argue about the political consequences of that Romney fundraising video, I wanted to briefly remark on the substance of his remarks. Romney said: [Obama] starts off with a huge number. These are the people who pay no income tax. Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax. So our message […]

Josh Barro: You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney’s campaign for president. Josh Marshall: It’s rare when the impact of some gaffe or embarrassment or revelation isn’t overstated on first blush. But this may just […]

As John suggested in his post this morning, he and I have been working with Ben Highton of UC Davis to develop some predictions for congressional elections.  We’re taking a very particular approach here:  we want to know how far the “fundamentals” of elections can get us toward an accurate read on congressional outcomes.  By […]

I will be writing occasional posts for Wonkblog about the presidential advertising.  My first post is up now, featuring the graph above, this new analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project, and so newly published research by Travis Ridout, Michael Franz, Ken Goldstein, and William Feltus. The main story the past several weeks, as the graph […]

Today is a pretty big day in US-China relations with the announcement of a U.S.-Japan agreement on missile defense and massive anti-Japanese demonstrations.  On top of this, the U.S. also announced that it will file a WTO case against China on auto exports. There is more than a hint that domestic electoral politics plays a […]

A banner on a store called pattad reads: “pattad firmly defends China’s right to the Diaoyu Islands. / We will give a 15% discount to customers who yell THE DIAOYU ISLANDS BELONG TO CHINA! in the store / We will give a 20% discount to customers who yell JAPAN ALSO BELONGS TO CHINA!” This is […]

With all the forecasts of the presidential election—e.g., here, here, here, and here—we wanted to add a little value here at The Monkey Cage by focusing on congressional elections.  We’ll begin with a forecast of the seat breakdown in the House and then explore such corollaries as the effect of low congressional approval and the […]

With a full week of polling data from after the two conventions, we are starting to get a better sense of the size of the convention bounces.  But what do those bounces tell us about likely winner come November?  Using a variety of sources,we can estimate a few facts about convention bounces and eventual election […]