Daniel Larison, who has an excellent record of predicting election outcomes, isn't convinced that Republicans will win the House in November:
Based on CQPolitics’ rankings, available funding and recent polling, I count 25 Democratic House seats that will most likely change hands, 4 Republican House seats (including HI-01) that will become Democratic seats in November, and 16 genuine toss-ups. This doesn’t include FL-25, which is an intriguing and weird race that bears watching and might be an unexpected Democratic pick-up. Even if the Republicans win all of those toss-ups (which is not likely), they will not have enough net seats to take the majority.
I don't know what the Associated Press has against counting higher numbers, but this is a very annoying headline: "Nearly Half Oppose Tax Hikes for Rich." Here's how the article opens:
Almost half the country opposes tax increases for the richest Americans, according to a poll suggesting that congressional Democrats are taking some risk by backing President Barack Obama's plan to boost levies on the wealthy.
Apparently, Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburnloves two things in this world: needless obstruction and salmonella:
Coburn's office confirmed to POLITICO on Tuesday that the Republican is objecting to moving forward with the bill on the grounds that it will add to the burgeoning federal budget. Coburn has become the GOP champion for demanding that legislation be fully paid for, staging or threatening filibusters this year on legislation ranging from war spending to unemployment benefits.
"Yes, he’s concerned the bill is not offset," said Coburn spokesman John Hart. "We can’t afford to spend money we don’t have any longer."