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Vox Pop

The Prospect's election 2012 blog

Accentuate the Negative

Paul WaldmanMay 23, 2012
What real negativity looks like.

Campaign reporters are often conflicted. You could say hypocritical, but that might be unnecessarily judgmental. For instance, they condemn rigorous adherence to talking points, but any display of candor is severely punished with the kind of coverage that makes what are widely known as "Kinsley gaffes" (i.e. inadvertently telling the truth) far less likely. They despise the culture of the political consultant, with its emphasis on style over substance and perception over reality, but simultaneously embrace that culture as their own, focusing relentlessly on appearances and how things are going to play with the public, acting like theater critics evaluating the show of politics. And they condemn negative campaigning, while at the same time they hunger for negativity, since nothing is more boring than a campaign in which the contestants are polite to each other.

One of the ways this is apparent is in how any bare-knuckled move by Barack Obama is greeted by tut-tutting that he has turned his back on that hopey-changey, above-partisanship guy he used to be...

Clinton as Veep Wouldn't Change the Election

Patrick CaldwellMay 23, 2012
(DoD Photo By Glenn Fawcett)

Polls remain essentially tied between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as the campaign heads into the pre-convention summer slog. That gives pundits plenty of time to chew over various scenarios for how each candidate could reconfigure their campaigns before the general election. The veepstakes is already the dominant story on Romney's side, but some have also begun speculating about Obama's running mate.

Winning Was Always a Possibility

Jamelle BouieMay 23, 2012
(NewsHour/Flickr)

Politico’s latest scoop is the discovery, after interviews with party leader and activists, that Republicans think Mitt Romney can win the election:

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The Docket

The Prospect's legal affairs blog

The War on Contraception Enters the Courts

Scott LemieuxMay 23, 2012
WikiMedia Commons

Forty-three Roman Catholic plaintiffs—including the archdiocese of New York and the University of Notre Dame—have filed lawsuits alleging that the Obama administration's contraceptive coverage requirements violate the First Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

Be Very Afraid

Scott LemieuxMay 17, 2012
WikiMedia Commons

Jamelle's hot-off-the-presses cover story on how Romney will govern as a hardcore right-winger irrespective of what he "really" thinks is a must-read. And what's even worse is that this lesson applies beyond budget policy. To address one particularly important point, consider the Supreme Court.

A State-Federal Standoff over the Death Penalty

Garrett EppsMay 16, 2012
(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)

A principled governor invoking “state’s rights” to defy federal policy. Aggressive local officials overriding state decisions. A federal court angrily affirming its own power. An anguished dissent attacking a power-hungry Congress. 

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The Monkey Cage

We are professors of political science.

The Gallup Pro-Choice Number

John SidesMay 23, 2012

A new Gallup poll shows that the percent of Americans calling themselves pro-choice has fallen to 41 percent. In 2008, when that number hit 42 percent, there was a predictable flurry of news attention. So I want to call attention to what I wrote then. In short, this “pro-life” vs. “pro-choice” question obscures the true nature of American attitudes toward abortion.  Support for the right to abortion depends strongly on the circumstances of the pregnancy. They cannot be summarized with the labels “pro-choice” and “pro-life.”

Moreover, and most importantly, more nuanced measures show little of the fluctuation that Gallup’s pro-choice vs. pro-life measure shows. Indeed Gallup’s new poll confirms this finding:

However, it is notable that while Americans’ labeling of their position has changed, their fundamental views on the issue have not.

Why Can't Journos Do Math?

Andrew GelmanMay 16, 2012

John shoots down David Brooks’s claim that “If you look at the fundamentals, the president should be getting crushed right now.” John points out (as does Ezra Klein) that if you look at the fundamentals, you’d expect a close election. OK, there are lots of ways of looking at politics, elections, and the economy, and I’m sure that some forecasts give Obama a bit lead. But that’s hardly a consensus reading of the fundamentals. The more parsimonious reading here is that Brooks was (a) misinformed and (b) didn’t know with whom to talk to get informed.

Do We Have a Civic Duty to Listen to Pollsters During Dinner?

Andrew GelmanMay 15, 2012

About an hour ago, we received the following email from the communications director of University of California Television:

Thought you might be interested in this short video commentary featuring UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy Dean Henry E. Brady on why it’s so important for average citizens to participate in political polls. The video premiered today on UCTV Prime, the YouTube original channel from University of California. Hope you’ll share the timely piece with your readers.

 

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