Polls

The Great Reset Has Arrived

The Pew Research Center has near-impeccable credentials with its polls, which is why yesterday’s—which showed Mitt Romney ahead by four points among likely voters—inspired mass panic among supporters of President Obama. Andrew Sullivan was at the forefront of the freakout. In a post titled “ Did Obama just throw the election away ?”, he excoriated Obama’s lackluster debate performance: “I’ve never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. … I’m trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it’s hard to see how a president and his party recover.” Sullivan will have more grist for the mill if he wants to continue to voice his disappointment with Obama. This morning, the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released a national poll that shows Romney with a two-point lead over Obama among likely voters, 49 percent to 47 percent...

Mitt Romney Finally Gets a Bounce

(Jamelle Bouie)
This weekend, the questions for everyone tracking the election was straightforward: Has Mitt Romney received a bounce in the polls on the strength of his debate performance? And has it turned the race into a toss-up? The national pollsters have yet to release their live-interviewer surveys from the last several days, but swing-state polls show signs of improvement for the former Massachusetts governor. October 5–7 Pollster Date State LV/RV Obama Romney Margin Gallup 10/06 USA RV 49 46 O+3 Rasmussen 10/07 USA LV 47 49 R+2 Rasmussen 10/05 Florida LV 47 49 R+2 We Ask America 10/05 Florida LV 46 49 R+3 Rasmussen 10/05 Virginia LV 48 49 R+1 We Ask America 10/05 Virginia LV 46 49 R+3 Rasmussen 10/05 Ohio LV 50 49 O+1 We Ask America 10/05 Ohio LV 46 47 R+1 McLaughlin/ACU 10/05 Colorado LV 46 50 R+4 Gravis Marketing 10/05 Nevada LV 49 48 O+1 Public Policy Polling 10/06 Wisconsin LV 49 47 O+2 University of Denver 10/06 Colorado LV 47 43 O+4 Gravis Marketing 10/06 Colorado LV 46 49 R+3 With the...

Romney's 47 Percent Ceiling

If you were feeling generous, you could call Monday the beginning of Mitt Romney’s “comeback.” Not only has he gained ground in national polls—he's pulled within 2 points of Obama in the latest survey from ABC News and the Washington Post —but there’s been positive movement in several swing states. Gravis Marketing now has Florida as a toss-up, and Public Policy Polling shows a tie in North Carolina, echoing the close race of 2008. October 1 Pollster State LV/RV Obama Romney Margin CNN USA LV 50 47 O+3 ABC News/ Washington Post USA LV 49 47 O+2 Politico/GWU/Battleground USA LV 49 47 O+2 Gallup USA RV 49 45 O+4 Rasmussen USA LV 50 47 O+3 Public Policy Polling Ohio LV 49 45 O+4 Gravis Marketing Florida LV 49 48 O+1 We Ask America Iowa LV 48 44 O+4 Public Policy Polling North Carolina LV 48 48 Tie American Research Group North Carolina LV 46 50 R+4 We Ask America Colorado LV 49 46 O+3 University of New Hampshire New Hampshire LV 54 39 O+15 This is better news for the Romney campaign, but...

Romney's Ohio Troubles

We are another week closer to the presidential election, and Mitt Romney is still behind. While American Research Group shows Romney in a tight race for Virginia, its track record over the course of this year is not good . If you want a better sense of where the race in the commonwealth stands, you should look to the polling averages, which show President Barack Obama with a consistent lead. September 28–30 Pollster State Date LV/RV Obama Romney Margin American Research Group Virginia 09/28 LV 49 47 O+2 American Research Group New Hampshire 09/28 LV 50 45 O+5 Gravis Marketing Michigan 09/28 LV 50 46 O+4 Morning Call Pennsylvania 09/28 LV 49 42 O+7 Rasmussen Maine 09/28 LV 52 40 O+12 Gallup USA 09/30 RV 49 44 O+5 Rasmussen USA 09/30 LV 48 46 O+2 Des Moines Register Iowa 09/30 LV 49 45 O+4 Columbus Dispatch Ohio 09/30 LV 51 42 O+9 Rasmussen Washington 09/30 LV 52 41 O+11 Boston Globe Massachusetts 09/30 LV 57 30 O+27 The other bright spot for Romney comes by way of Gallup, which shows...

Sat, Sep. 29 Electoral Vote Predictor

How Does the Presidential Race Compare to Previous Ones? One way to measure the presidential race is to compare the national Gallup poll now to national Gallup polls taken on or close to this date in previous years to see their predictive value. Talking Points Memo has collected the data, and here it is . The notation D+6 means the Democrat was ahead by 6 points, etc. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk. Click here for full story

A Bright Spot in Nevada

(Thomas Hawk/Flickr)
President Obama’s margin in national polls hasn’t diminished at all this week—he still maintains a strong position among registered voters and likely voters. What is interesting, however, is his position in Nevada and Arizona. Thursday, September 27 Pollster State LV/RV Obama Romney Margin Reuters/Ipsos USA RV 49 42 O+7 Fox News USA LV 48 43 O+5 Gallup USA RV 50 44 O+6 Rasmussen USA LV 46 46 Tie Suffolk/WWBT Virginia LV 46 44 O+2 NBC/WSJ/Marist Nevada LV 49 47 O+2 NBC/WSJ/Marist New Hampshire LV 51 44 O+7 NBC/WSJ/Marist North Carolina LV 48 46 O+2 Rasmussen Arizona LV 52 42 R+10 Moore Information Arizona RV 42 46 R+4 As Nate Cohn points out , it’s been long assumed that Nevada will fall easily into Obama’s column this year. He won with a 12-point margin in 2008, and his strong performance with Latino voters is a sign that he holds the advantage. On the other hand, Nevada was hard hit by the housing collapse, and has one of the weakest economies in the country—unemployment continues to...

Fri, Sep. 28 Electoral Vote Predictor

You Are the 100 Millionth Visitor When I started this site in 2004, it was a bit of a lark and just for a few friends. Yesterday it passed the 100-million visitor mark . Thanks for coming by! Swing-State Voters Oppose Changes to Medicare A new Kaiser poll in Florida among registered voters shows that 80% think Medicare is very important or extremely important for their vote and by a margin of 53% to 38% they prefer Obama rather than Romney to handle the matter. Recent polls have shown Obama with a small but consistent lead in Florida, no doubt due in part to Florida's many seniors (in 2008, 20% of Florida's voters were at least 65). In retrospect, Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate may have been a mistake, since his plan to change Medicare from a defined benefit program to a defined contribution program is wildly unpopular in Florida, the most important swing state of all. Furthermore, Ryan's plan is also unpopular in Ohio and Virginia, the second and fourth biggest...

The Ohio Problem

(AP Photo/ Evan Vucci) Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally, Wednesday, September 26, 2012, in Westerville, Ohio. I wrote yesterday that President Obama is building a solid margin over Governor Romney in the state. The picture is similar in Ohio—where Obama has led in every poll since the Democratic National Convention—and Nevada, where he's led in almost every survey since the beginning of the year. Tuesday's polls reinforced both trends, and highlighted the extent to which Romney is on something of a downwards trajectory. September 25 Pollster State LV/RV Obama Romney Margin RAND USA LV 50.18 42.83 O+7.35 Gallup USA RV 48 45 O+3 Rasmussen USA LV 47 46 O+1 Washington Post Florida LV 51 47 O+4 Washington Post Ohio LV 52 44 O+8 Gravis Marketing Ohio LV 45 44 O+1 Retail Association of Nevada/POS Nevada LV 46 46 Tie Public Policy Polling Nevada LV 52 43 O+9 Monmouth University New Jersey LV 52 37 O+15 Talk Business...

In Florida, Romney Has Hit the Danger Zone

Jamelle Bouie
Mitt Romney has a few paths to victory, some more likely than others. He could repeat George W. Bush’s performance in 2004 and carry the White House with wins in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio. He could cede Virginia to Obama and take Colorado and New Hampshire. He could give up Colorado and New Hampshire but win Wisconsin and the single electoral vote in Omaha, Nebraska. He could lose Ohio and make up for it with Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin. But what Romney can’t do—under any remotely plausible scenario—is win the White House without Florida. Take Florida away from Romney, and he doesn’t have a path to 270 electoral votes that doesn’t involve winning a traditional blue state. Mitt Romney could run the table , win New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado, and still fall short of 270 electoral votes. To win, he’d have to overcome a year-long, seven-point deficit in Nevada, which—on top of everything else—is not something I’d bet...

Tue, Sep. 25 Electoral Vote Predictor

Ryan Became Romney Instead of Romney Becoming Ryan Conservatives who cheered Mitt Romney's selection of Representative Paul Ryan, a Republican from Wisconsin, as his running mate in the hope this indicated a more aggressive, more conservative stance for Romney have been sorely disappointed . They had expected Ryan's bold style to rub off on Romney. Instead, it is the other way: Ryan has become muted and vague, like Romney. The problem is certainly not Ryan. All vice-presidential candidates know who is the boss and Ryan is surely doing precisely what his boss wants: looking sharp but be vague about all the details. In the six weeks since he was tapped, Ryan hasn't given a single national press conference, although he has done interviews for local media outlets—which typically don't push the interviewee very hard. His stump speech rarely mentions his plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system. Instead, he attacks President Obama and plays up his bow hunting abilities and working-...

The Night's Watch

Seven swing state polls came out today and each showed President Obama with a decisive advantage over Mitt Romney, making this a bad start to the week for the Republican presidential nominee. In Colorado, Public Policy Polling gives Obama a six-point lead over Romney. In Michigan, Rasmussen puts Obama 12 points ahead of Romney, 54 to 42, which is similar to the results in Wisconsin, where We Ask America gives Obama a double-digit lead , 53 to 41. According to the latest polls from American Research Group, Obama is ahead by seven points in Iowa and Nevada , and by 5 points in Florida, 50–45. Finally, the conservative Civitas Institute released a survey of North Carolina, which found Obama with a four-point lead over the former Massachusetts governor, 49 percent to 45 percent. If you’re unconvinced that the race isn’t a toss-up, keep in mind that Obama is leading in every single national poll. Even pollsters with Republican-friendly results, like Rasmussen, show a race that has broken...

Latino Enthusiasm Bounces Back

(Steve Rhodes/Flickr)
Latino enthusiasm is one of the wild cards of this election. In 2008, a record percentage of Latinos reported high enthusiasm for the election, and their turnout—9 percent of the electorate—was critical to Barack Obama’s victories in Colorado, North Carolina and Florida. Obama has managed to maintain his support among Latino voters, but for most of this year, their enthusiasm has lagged behind where it was four years ago. This summer, according to NBC News, Wall Street Journal and Telemundo , only 49 percent of Latinos were “highly interested” in the election, compared to 62 percent of all voters. Likewise, a Latino Decisions survey from the beginning of the year found lower enthusiasm compared to 2008; at the time , 38 percent of Latinos said they were more enthusiastic about 2012 while 46 percent said they were more enthusiastic back in 2008. Since the Democratic convention, however, all of this has changed. Not only has Obama increased his vote share among Latinos—according to the...

Romney's Wrong Right Move

(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)
(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak) Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney campaigns at D’Evelyn High School in Denver, Colorado over the weekend. Once it became clear that President Barack Obama received a significant bounce from the Democratic National Convention, the next question was whether this bounce would translate to an enduring advantage for his campaign. On Friday, polls from National Journal and Reason magazine gave Obama a 7-point lead over Mitt Romney, 50–43 and 52–45, respectively. Saturday was a quiet day for national polling, but Sunday saw the release of two tracking polls by Rasmussen and Gallup. Rasmussen was unchanged from the last few days ; Romney and Obama remain tied with 46 percent support, though Obama’s job approval has ticked down: 48 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove. Obama began last week in a similar position with Gallup, but both his approval—and performance against Romney—improved in yesterday’s tracking poll. He now earns 48 percent support to...

Sun, Sep. 23 Electoral Vote Predictor

Polls Aren't Moving, Both Sides Worried The bounce President Obama got from the Democratic convention shows no sign of fading and both sides are worried. One reason the polls are not moving is that people have made up their minds and there are hardly any voters left to swing. A large fraction are not really strongly for either candidate but are strongly against one of them. One voter said he'd vote for Saddam Hussein before he'd vote for Barack Hussein but another called Romney the devil. Not much motion is likely there. Romney's team can read the handwriting on the wall and the pixels on the monitor and is trying to put on a brave face, saying : "We've got a campaign which is tied with an incumbent president [of] the United States." The team knows that in the national polls, it is fairly close, but in this graph of the electoral college Romney has been behind all year and is now down 122 electoral votes. They feel that some fundamentals (such as the poor jobs situation) put them in a...

Sat, Sep. 22 Electoral Vote Predictor

Obama Leads in Poll of Swing States A new Purple Strategies poll of 12 swing states shows President Obama with a lead of 49% to 44% over Mitt Romney. In August, the same poll had Romney ahead by 1%, so this is a sharp swing towards Obama. Part of Romney's problem is that only 38% of the voters see him in a favorable light vs. 52% who regard him unfavorably. Obama's favorability is above water with 49% to 46%. Romney Releases 2011 Tax Return, Paid 14% Willard M. Romney has released his 379-page tax return . His income was $13.69 million, of which $450,740 was earned (business) income. The rest was mostly interest, dividends, and capital gains. He paid $1.9 million in federal tax. Below is the income portion of Romney's tax return. Click here for full story

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