GOP RED STATE STRATEGY: Even though Stuart Rothenberg took issue with the New York Times piece on Monday that asserted that the RNC is giving up on the Ohio Senate race and shifting resources to Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, I think the piece raises an interesting point. Republicans are now dumping money into Mark Foley‘s district because they are startled to find that even with his disgraced name on the ballot (and a different candidate on the ticket) they may still be able to hold his seat, simply because it is overwhelmingly Republican. Similarly while George Allen‘s myriad dramatic gaffes have brought the Virginia Senate race to a dead heat, Jim Webb has not developed a strong lead and a GOP money dump could easily save Allen. Meanwhile you’ve got Harold Ford Jr., an incredibly charismatic–and moderate–Democrat from a prominent local political family running in Tennessee, and his victory is far from assured.
All of this demonstrates the structural disadvantage the Democrats face in trying to regain control of Congress. Because of gerrymandered congressional districts and the over-representation of small interior red states in the Senate, not to mention the disenfranchisement of Washington DC, the Democrats could win far more total votes this fall and not be in control of either chamber, much less both, next term. And this is a year where everything is going right for the Democrats. Projecting over years to come, the Dems face daunting odds of gaining and holding control of Congress. For that to be fundamentally altered in the House the Democrats will need to take the majority of state legislatures and use that power to gerrymander in their favor after the next census, or at least implement non-partisan redistricting. For the Senate the Dems need to focus on realigning some of the less populated regions. I wonder if anyone like Ezra or Tom might some ideas on which ones that should be and why….