The articles reporting on first quarter productivity told us that it was better than it expected, coming in at a 1.7 percent annual rate. Count me among the surprised. I was expecting a number close to 0.5 percent based on 1.4 percent growth in output and a 1.0 percent increase in hours worked.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics now reports that hours worked fell at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter. This is possiible given their methodology, because BLS takes hours for the self-employed from the Current Population Survey, and this data is extremely erratic. As a practical matter, it is not likely that hours actually fell at a 0.3 percent rate in the quarter, and it would not be good news if they did. Look for a sharp jump in reported hours in the second quarter and a very weak productivity number.

–Dean Baker

Dean Baker is senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, including Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Read more about Dean.