The Post headlined an article “Venezuelan Oil Losing Share of Key U.S. Market,” with the implicit suggestion that this poses a serious problem for the Venezuelan oil industry. The data in the article don’t quite fit the headline. The reason that Venezuela has lost market share over the last decade is that U.S. oil imports have risen by almost 50 percent, while Venezuela’s exports have been almost flat.
In fact, since the main reason for rising imports has been declining domestic production, the share of Venezuelan oil in U.S. consumption has changed little over the last decade. I’m not sure that anyone in Venezuela is actively thinking of the impact of a cutoff of exports to the U.S. (obviously a cutoff would hurt both countries, but the U.S. can buy oil elsewhere and Venezuela can sell oil elsewhere), but since the relevant factor is the share of Venezuelan oil in U.S. consumption, not imports, the dependence of the U.S. on Venezuelan oil has not changed appreciably.
–Dean Baker
