OUTPLAYED. I’ve got to agree with Yglesias and Djerejian; Putin played the Azerbaijian hand well (that is, offering to build a joint missile defense system with the U.S. there). Greg points out another implication:
Meantime, and under-reported, the Azeri option would likely also have significant implications for Iranian-Azeri relations — keeping in mind there is a somewhat restive Azeri minority in parts of Iran’s north — probably none of them particularly good ones.
Maybe, although it doesn’t look at this point as if Azerbaijian is going to have a lot of choice in the matter. I’m a bit more interested in how the Iranian-Russian relationship would be affected. Would Iran blame Putin for trying to facilitate an anti-Iranian shield, or be comforted by the notion that friendly (or, at least more friendly than the American) Russians would be operating a key component of the defense? In any case, I also agree with Greg that Putin is offering this less as a serious option than as a tactical maneuver, although such maneuvers may develop into serious proposals over time.
–Robert Farley
