Unlike Ezra, I’m still not really convinced by this article that a serious third-party campaign is inevitable should Giuliani win the GOP nomination. Consider the qualifications in the quotes obtained by Scherer:
- “There will be further exploration of what is to be done…And there will be some discussion of who would be a viable independent candidate.”
- “If the walkout of Republicans grassroots were dramatic enough and if it enticed major figures to join, which in turn caused millionaires to follow along and caused major media continually to provide favorable treatment, a third party could work.“
- “The train has left the station in terms of conservatives being committed to a different relationship with the Republican Party,..It is not clear what track it is going to go on.”
Not exactly iron-clad commitments here, although at this stage they would be essentially cost-free. It seems to me that all of this is equally consistent with a bluff intended to thwart Giuliani’s bid as a serious movement to elect Hillary Clinton in ’08 should Giuliani actually win. It may be true that many social conservatives just don’t care if, say, Roe is entrenched for decades when the judges appointed Giuliani would almost certainly provide a majority for gutting or overturning it, but I remain unconvinced, and I don’t see anything in this article that really proves otherwise.
–Scott Lemieux
