I ran into former Republican National Committee chairman

I ran into former Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman today at the Des Moines Marriott. (Believe it or not, he’s here promoting Strong American Schools, a non-partisan education non-profit sponsored by the Gates Foundation, among others.)

I asked him what his gut sense of tomorrow’s Republican caucus outcome would be tomorrow, and he pointed out something very simple, obvious yet compelling: the conservative insurgent may do well, even far exceed expectations, but usually finishes second.

That is, Ronald Reagan was second to George H.W. Bush in 1980; Pat Roberston was second to Bob Dole in 1988; in 1996, Pat Buchanan finished second to Dole; in 2000, Steve Forbes came in behind winner George W. Bush. By that logic, Mitt Romney holds on to beat Mike Huckabee tonight.

–Tom Schaller

Thomas F. Schaller is an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and author of The Stronghold: How Republicans Captured Congress but Surrendered the White House.