One of the oddities of the primary season in that the Democratic and Republican contests take place under different sets of rules. In general, the Democratic contests award delegates proportionately — the number of delegates you win is roughly equal to the number of votes you receive, so long as you clear a minimum threshold (15 percent, generally). The Republicans, by contrast, tend to use winner-take-all rules. So the fine folks at the Monkey Cage decided to look into what would happen if you switched the rules. First, check out the Democrats:
Because I don’t know how to control the range Excel places on the Y axis, the results look a bit more dramatic than they really are. The takeaway here is that Republican winner-take-all rules would make the contest a bit more competitive, giving Clinton round 70 more delegates, and taking 30-some from Obama. But check out the Republicans:
Among them, the difference is huge. Shift to proportional, Democratic rules and McCain’s insurmountable lead snaps back to a dead heat with Romney. It’s only under the winner-take-all system that his strategy of eschewing field organizing and eking out victories suffices.
Meanwhile, it’s a bit odd that, for both parties, switching to the other side’s rules would make the race more, rather than less, competitive.
