In 2004, one of the early indicators of Kerry’s eventual loss was that the Democrats never settled on a single line of attack against Bush. They switched jarringly between claims of incompetence ideology, obstinance, corruption, inexperience, and inattention. The Republicans, by contrast, just called Kerry a flip-flopper, over and again.

By contrast, this year it’s the Democrats who settled early on a description for their opponent: McCain is running for Bush’s third term. By contrast, in the past month, the McCain campaign has tried deriding Obama’s candidacy as “just words,” attacked him for inexperience, insisted he was untrustworthy, and as of this week, are trotting out “flip-flopper.” The message changes on days ending in “y.” Not a good sign for them.

Ezra Klein is a former Prospect writer and current editor-in-chief at Vox. His work has appeared in the LA Times, The Guardian, The Washington Monthly, The New Republic, Slate, and The Columbia Journalism Review. He’s been a commentator on MSNBC, CNN, NPR, and more.