Even as Democrats brace themselves for the inauguration of Donald Trump as the nation’s 45th president, they are focused on 2020 and on who can help them recapture the White House.
No Democrat has yet declared any interest in running for president, but the successful candidate for 2020 will have to be somebody who has a record of accomplishment, played a key leadership role in opposing Trump’s policy initiatives, can win Democratic primaries that will be dominated by liberals, turn out black, Latino, young and low-income voters, and win back some white, working-class, swing-state voters who voted for Trump.
One has to assume that the next Democratic candidate will by facing off with Trump, but it is possible that he won’t want to run again or that he will be dethroned by the Republicans after causing enormous chaos and intra-party division. In that case, the most likely GOP candidate will be House Speaker Paul Ryan. Vice President Mike Pence will want to run, too, but he’ll be saddled with the Trump legacy and, in any case, won’t have Trump’s wider appeal.
A strong Democratic candidate will need to draw a sharp contrast with Trump, Ryan, or Pence, all extreme conservatives. She or he can’t be too close to Wall Street, and must have a credible plan to promote jobs, improve the safety net for families, expand health care while controlling drug and insurance costs, expand workers’ rights, protect reproductive health, limit military-style assault weapons, end racism in the criminal justice system, and strengthen consumer and environmental protections. To win, the Democratic nominee will also need charisma, be able to withstand the Republican attack machine, and be free from personal controversy.
It’s a tall order-and none of the close to two-dozen Democrats who might be considered contenders passes every single one of these litmus tests. Nevertheless, here is a handy user’s guide that shows how 20 potential Democratic presidential hopefuls stack up. They are ranked here according to two criteria-whether they are progressive and electable-on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest.
In the “progressive” column, the ranking takes into account the politician’s track record in office (including voting records where applicable), and comments on issues, especially on economic and social topics. Only a few of them have much experience with foreign policy. The “electable” column ranks potential candidates on their own electoral track records, their potential appeal to both swing voters in battleground states and Democratic base voters, and their ability to deliver 270 Electoral College votes.
Two Democrats on this list-Kamala Harris and Tammy Duckworth-are newly elected Senators who will only have served four years by 2020, but that didn’t hurt Barack Obama in 2008. Several others are wild cards, such as businessmen Mark Cuban and Howard Schultz. Like Trump, who also had no electoral experience, both have potential popular appeal. Michael Bloomberg would have to become a Democrat again, but maybe four years of Trump would make that an easy call.
Here is a progressive/electable ranking for 20 Democrats whose names have been mentioned as potential White House candidates:
Name Progressive Electability
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts: 4 4.5
The charismatic Massachusetts senator leads the party’s progressive wing as a foe of Wall Street.
2. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio:
5 4
If Ohio’s Brown wins re-election in 2018, he could help the Democrats win back the Rust Belt in 2020, but it would allow GOP Governor Kasich to appoint a Republican replacement.
Bernie Sanders:
5 3.5
Many of his supporters and some pundits thought Sanders could have beaten Trump, but others question his commitment to the Democratic Party.
Tom Perez:
4.5 2.5
The most progressive member of Obama’s cabinet has lots of government experience and a broad following within the party, but hasn’t yet been tested in a major election.
Kamala Harris of California:
4 3.5
The Senate’s only African American woman was a popular consumer advocate as California’s Attorney General.
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York:
3.5 4
Many Democrats view her as a young version of Hillary Clinton, but without the baggage.
Tim Kaine of Virginia:
3.5 3.5
The former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor gained a lot of fans as Hillary Clinton’s running mate.
Martin O’Malley:
3.5 3
The one-time Baltimore mayor was overshadowed in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries by Clinton and Sanders.
Tammy Duckworth of Illinois:
3 3.5
The disabled Iraq war veteran was a popular Congresswoman who beat an incumbent Senator in a swing state in November.
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota:
3 3
With Midwestern roots, an Ivy League pedigree, and “Minnesota nice,” Klobuchar has twice won Senate elections in this liberal state.
Cory Booker of New Jersey:
3 3
The charismatic black Senator and former Newark mayor has a great personal story, but some progressives consider him too close to Wall Street, and too cozy with wealthy charter school advocates.
John Hickenlooper:
3 3
He’s popular in this important swing state, but environmentalists say he’s too close to the fracking industry.
Deval Patrick:
3 2.5
A former civil rights lawyer and two-term governor who was raised by a single mother in Chicago, Patrick went on to Harvard College and Harvard Law School, but since leaving office he’s become a corporate lawyer-not the best credential for winning over progressive Democrats.
Andrew Cuomo:
3 2.5
New York’s progressives have a love-hate relationship with the unpredictable and often abrasive Cuomo.
Chuck Schumer of New York:
3 2.5
Wall Street’s favorite Democrat, now the Senate minority leader, is a progressive on social issues but would be a hard sell outside blue states.
Mark Cuban:
2.5 3
The billionaire businessman owns the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, chronicled his success in How to Win at the Sport of Business, likes to pontificate about politics on TV talk shows, and once claimed that if he ran for president he “could beat both Trump and Clinton.”
Howard Schultz:
2.5 3
A moderate Democrat with liberal social views, Schultz was raised in public housing, played sports in college, and wound up piloting Starbucks’ dramatic expansion as its CEO.
Michael Bloomberg:
2.5 2.5
Another billionaire businessman, Bloomberg has been a Democrat, a Republican, and an independent, a so-so mayor, and a foe of the NRA.
Julian Castro:
2.5 2
The Latino cabinet member was briefly in the national spotlight when Clinton considered him as a possible running mate, but he was viewed as too young and too conservative to make a big enough dent in the electorate.
John Bel Edwards:
2 3
A West Point grad, military vet, and LSU law school alum, Edwards’ conservative stances on abortion and guns helped him in 2015 beat GOP Senator David Vitter for governor in the Bayou State, where he signed a law expanding Medicaid.
