Just after 2:20 Friday morning, the Senate voted by unanimous consent to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, including TSA, for the remainder of this fiscal year through June. The funding excludes money for ICE and Customs and Border Protection. The measure then headed to the House for final passage.
Why did both parties suddenly take this deal? On the one hand, Democrats had introduced legislation that looked essentially like this since before the shutdown; why did Republicans finally agree? Meanwhile, there are no concessions on limiting ICE’s behavior, of the kind that Democrats have been demanding for weeks; why did Democrats allow that to happen?
The triggering event was Trump’s announcement Thursday that he would just issue an executive order to fund TSA agents by decree after calling a national emergency. That was in response to lobbying by Senate Republicans, who saw the move as a way to pressure Democrats to fund TSA with no legislative constraints on ICE. But it was a weird form of pressure, since Senate Democrats have put forward bills to fund TSA with no strings attached nine times. The gambit ended up backfiring, as the public was left wondering why Trump didn’t use the emergency measure six weeks ago.
With TSA now funded, the immediate pressure for reform is off. Last week, White House officials proposed some minor reforms, including expanded use of body cameras, limits on ICE activities near hospitals and schools, and visible officer identification. Newly confirmed Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who stepped down from his Oklahoma Senate seat to head DHS, also provided verbal assurances to Democrats. But without legislative language, none of these assurances has any legal value, and could be reversed on Trump’s whim. That’s why Republicans have resisted writing limits into law.
But while Democrats didn’t get any concessions, they also didn’t give up any funding. (“My caucus didn’t budge,” Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said.) ICE and CBP can operate indefinitely thanks to the $140 billion windfall they received under last year’s “Big Beautiful” budget bill. Democrats haven’t clawed back those funds, but for now they’ve denied the $29 billion in annual base funding for the agencies. This could persist for the rest of Trump’s presidency.
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According to Senate Republican leader John Thune, who professed to be unhappy with today’s deal, the Senate will take up ICE and CBP funding later this year in a reconciliation bill, where passage would take only 50 votes. As my colleague David Dayen reported, that bill will be very difficult for Republicans to pass. Between Trump’s immigration Gestapo, as much as $200 billion for the ill-begotten war in Iran, and funding cuts to federal benefits (including more cuts to health care, disguised as “fraud prevention”), it’s likely to be one of the most unpopular bills in American history.
Add in the complication that House hard-liners—and Trump—are insistent on attaching his voter suppression tool called the SAVE Act, which isn’t budgetary and will likely get kicked out of reconciliation, and you have a complicated dance to get to an absolute majority in either chamber.
The worst-case scenario for Republicans is that they can’t find the votes for reconciliation, lose a year of ICE and CBP funding, lose the election, and give Democrats a road map to squeeze away the immigration enforcement surge permanently. If Republicans do pass funding in reconciliation, then Democrats will have gained no concessions from their power play.
For fans of the nuances of legislative bargaining, the deal allowed both parties victory of a sort. But the real battle begins later.
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