Today, voters in Michigan head to the polls to decide one of the year’s most highly contested Democratic primaries. It’s become a political tradition where two Democrats, one entrenched in the establishment and the other a progressive (at least by comparison), go head-to-head. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) and Abdul El-Sayed, a former public-health official who ran for governor of Michigan in 2018, have waged intense and at times personal campaigns against each other. The winner will almost certainly face former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in a toss-up general election.
The ideological split has roiled the Democratic Party, as more voters become increasingly discontented with the establishment, yet constantly hear about the need to find someone electable in swing-seat races. In Michigan, this is playing out in a primary where Black people are particularly poised to influence the election’s outcome, as they constitute around a quarter of registered voters.
Stevens is a moderate Democrat with more political experience, but she has found herself in hot water due to the millions of dollars that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has funneled into ads that promote her bid for Congress. AIPAC’s super PAC United Democracy Project has spent close to $30 million on pro-Stevens and anti-El-Sayed ads, the PAC’s largest investment ever in a single race.
Stevens hasn’t said much about AIPAC’s infusion of support, but has remained steadfast in her position that the U.S. should not cut off military aid to Israel. On the flip side, El-Sayed has pledged to do the opposite, opting to instead focus on how those dollars could go to progressive causes like abolishing ICE and universal health care.
But while the U.S.-Israel relationship has taken the more visible front seat in the race, both candidates have recognized the need to court the votes of Black Michiganders. A powerful method has come in the form of receiving endorsements from notable Black politicians. Although former President Barack Obama has not issued a formal endorsement for either candidate, groups backing Stevens have poured millions of dollars into airing ads that show him praising her work as chief of staff to his administration’s auto industry task force. The remarks are from 2018.
When combined with the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) PAC and celebrated Black establishment Democrats like Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), Stevens is positioning herself as a candidate who could reliably prioritize issues important to Black Michiganders. She’s hammered home this status while campaigning in Black churches in cities like Detroit, speaking to mostly older Black voters, who tend to turn out in high numbers.
In an ad paid for by her campaign, Stevens featured Bishop Christopher Martin of the Cathedral of Faith Ministries Church of God in Christ, an influential but also problematic leader in Flint’s Black Christian community. Martin had previously come under scrutiny for alleged homophobic and Islamophobic comments.
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El-Sayed has also prioritized seeking the votes of Black people, and also has received the backing of Black political figures and organizations. Progressive Black members of Congress such as Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Summer Lee (D-PA) have voiced their support of his campaign, breaking off from the CBC. He’s also spent time sitting in the pews of Black churches, and ran a prominent ad with Wayne County Commissioner Martha G. Scott, who was the first Black woman mayor in any city in Michigan. El-Sayed served Wayne County, which includes Detroit, as its health director.
Recent polling isn’t looking very optimistic for El-Sayed as far as the Black vote is concerned: 67 percent of Black respondents to a poll from The Detroit News in July indicated that they would vote for Stevens, compared to El-Sayed’s 34 percent. But El-Sayed has a double-digit lead overall in most polls in the final days.
Perhaps Stevens is positioned to pick up the majority of votes from Black Michiganders, but this likely will fall along generational lines. Older Black people reliably tend to vote for candidates entrenched in the Democratic establishment, but research has shown that young Black voters feel disillusioned by the DNC. Democrats, especially white ones, lean heavily into ensuring that Black people make it to the ballot box, but arguably often abandon or change their promises of focusing on issues important to those very voters when they assume office.
Regardless of who wins tonight, the national tradition of candidates scrambling to gain the backing of Black voters when it benefits them won’t die. The question remains the same: Will Stevens or El-Sayed focus on fighting to represent their Black constituents if they manage to beat Rogers, or will that resolve fly out the window once the final vote is counted?
