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In 1910, the British journalist Norman Angell published a book called The Great Illusion, in which he argued that recent economic developments had made war a senseless proposition. Economic relationships were so delicate and easily disrupted, and modern militaries were so expensive and destructive, that any war between major powers was certain to be an enormous net cost for both combatants. There was simply no way to make a big profit, à la Julius Caesar, by conquering some other nation and coming back home with some tigers and a big sack of booty. It followed, Angell reasoned, that if a war did break out, it would likely not last very long.
Angell was half right and half wrong. Just four years later, a giant war sucked in all the major powers of the world, and sure enough, it shattered the economies of every combatant that saw serious fighting. Contrary to expectations, however, it lasted four blood-drenched years. The governments of Germany and Russia kept fighting so long past the point where suing for peace was the obviously smart move that they ended up being toppled by revolutions. Then, 20 years after that, the same nations did basically the same war again, except worse.
You’d think that a country whose economy depends on oil would not attempt a war of conquest in the age of drone warfare. And you’d be wrong.
One hundred and sixteen years later, the global economy is orders of magnitude more delicate and easily disrupted, and modern militaries are orders of magnitude more expensive and destructive, and yet leaders of major powers like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are still starting wars of aggression. Let’s call it Angell’s dilemma. It doesn’t matter how obviously insane wars are; some politicians will always be stupid enough to start one.
Trump’s war in Iran has not caused anything like an economic crisis in America—yet—because it is not being fought on American soil or with a full-scale war mobilization. It has done so in Iran and the other nations around the Persian Gulf. But the disruption to global energy supplies is starting to bite across the world. Iran lacks the capability to defeat the United States military in open combat (though it has severely damaged many American bases around the Middle East), so it has adopted a strategy of inflicting economic pain on America and its allies.
The Strait of Hormuz has not been fully open since February 28, and Iran and its allies have been playing whack-a-mole with all the various end runs other nations have set up to get around it. Most recently, they bombed the East-West Pipeline, which carries Saudi crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, and Iran’s Houthi allies seized strategic control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea’s southerly opening. That has further crimped global oil supplies.
As a result, oil prices are now north of $100 a barrel, and because of lack of refining capacity, products refined from oil are even more expensive. At time of writing, the American average price of gasoline was $4.45, while diesel was at $6.51. In many poorer nations, this has become a full-blown fuel crisis.
Eyewatering diesel prices are down to so many diesel refineries being offline or blown up—which brings me to the war in Ukraine. Last year, Trump cut off the Ukrainian military from American aid, which had the side effect of freeing Ukraine’s hands. No American weapons, no restrictions on how they can be used. So much like Iran, to inflict pain on their opponent, Ukraine has taken increasingly bold shots at Russian economic infrastructure.
In this they have been extremely successful, and it’s a big reason why this war has caused a major economic crisis in both nations. Almost half of Russia’s oil refining capacity has been taken offline, and the country has banned exports of gas and diesel—previously a large source of export revenue. The Russian economy is tottering: Its foreign currency reserves are draining fast, inflation and the national debt are high and rising, the central bank short-term interest rate is 14 percent, and a growing labor shortage is only getting worse with every monthly harvest of 30,000-plus casualties.
It is at least bleakly funny to contrast this situation with last year, when Trump hauled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into the White House to yell at him. “You don’t have the cards,” said Trump. Now Trump, looking down the barrel of an epic midterm wipeout because of high diesel prices, is calling up Zelensky to demand he stop blowing up Russian diesel refineries. I’m sure he’ll get right on that.
It’s not exactly shocking that Trump would stab an ally in the back for no reason, and then later, after having thrown away all his leverage, angrily demand that ally do what he wants solely to benefit his own selfish interests. It is exactly the kind of thing someone who started a war with Iran for no coherent reason would do.
But all this underlines Angell’s basic point about the costs of war, and how utterly senseless both of these conflicts are. Oil refineries are extremely complicated and expensive, and filled with various highly flammable materials. If you’re of a sensible turn of mind, like Angell, you’d think that a country whose economy depends on oil would not attempt a war of conquest in the age of drone warfare. And you’d be wrong.
There will always be stupid, belligerent people willing to start insane wars for no reason. The trick is to not elect them president. That is a lesson the American voting public is learning the hard way.
