Republicans Running Scared in the Rio Grande Valley

Big Bend is one of the National Park system’s finest jewels, a hiker’s paradise where the stratified cliffs tell of the last billion years. There are cacti and pastel sunsets, kit foxes and petroglyphs. There is the Rio Grande flowing through the canyon, and tiny plants that push up through mud cracks. You can still find untouched land in this part of Texas, where the spotty cell reception can either gum up your day or offer welcome solace, depending on your schedule. The beauty here is the best part of Texas District 23, says former teacher and attorney for children in foster care Katy Padilla Stout, the Democratic nominee running to represent it. The only thing better is the people, whose genuineness “will absolutely take your breath away,” she told the Prospect. That extends to how they view political parties. “Our big thing has always been people over party,” she said.

More from Whitney Curry Wimbish

Padilla Stout is among the Democrats running in the Rio Grande Valley, who say they like their chances against Republicans in November despite voters there overwhelmingly choosing Donald Trump just two years ago. But his administration and the Republican Party in general have taken the region’s voters for granted, they said, alienating them with an economic policy that makes life unaffordable and a mass deportation campaign that makes it terrifying. Those choices have erased any benefit they were counting on when they gerrymandered South Texas last year with the expectation of gaining five seats. Now the Rio Grande Valley, whose population is more than 92 percent Hispanic or Latino, is favoring Democratic representatives. Sixty-five percent of Hispanic voters told pollsters from The New York Times/Siena University this month that they are unhappy with how Trump has handled his job, and even more, 78 percent, said they would prefer Democrats to control Congress.

When Padilla Stout talks to people in her district—her campaign conducts at least four block walks every week—“the number one thing on everybody’s mind is affordability. How are we going to not just maintain the status quo, but how are we going to charge forward?” And more people, some for the first time, are speaking out against immigration raids that are overwhelmingly targeting Black and brown people, regardless of their immigration status.

“We’re having new people come forward who haven’t spoken out about those practices before, such as the business owners” who are concerned that their businesses will collapse without the labor force they’re used to hiring, Padilla Stout said. “That voice hadn’t really been heard in a while in that sphere … small-business owners in Texas have understood for a long time that our labor force is tied to our relationship with Mexico.”

REPUBLICANS KNOW THEY’RE IN TROUBLE, so they are spending hard. As David Dayen wrote on September 14, they’re pouring money into districts in the region, all of which Trump won by double digits. In District 23, Padilla Stout is facing Republican gun influencer Brandon Herrera, a man who goes by “The AK Guy” and who likes to make misogynistic comments in the vernacular of the extremely online, such as referring to a baby as a “cum trophy.” That district went to Trump, 57 to 42, yet No Going Back PAC and Elon Musk’s America PAC have spent more than $64,000 trying to stop Padilla Stout.

Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, a household name in the region, is challenging Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz to represent District 15. That district went for Trump in 2024 by 58 to 41, yet those two PACS have together spent $1.6 million to defeat him.

In District 35, No Going Back PAC has spent almost $783,000—despite Trump winning 55 to 44. That seat, which Republicans specifically thought they would win under the new maps, is held by Rep. Greg Casar. But he’s running in the redrawn District 37, so 35 is up for grabs in a race between Democratic sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran whose sister is Monica De La Cruz.

Democrats already hold two districts: Reps. Henry Cuellar in District 28 and Vicente Gonzalez Jr. in District 34, both of which went to Trump, 55 to 45.

The Congressional Leadership Fund has spent more than half a million dollars trying to replace Cuellar with Republican nominee and Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, and Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent nearly $8,000.

Super PACs have spent even more attempting to flip the seat Gonzalez holds, about $606,000. The GOP candidate in that race is Eric Flores, a former assistant U.S. attorney who says he is guided by his Christian faith. As the Prospect reported, Flores is using Trump’s bogus $5,000 promise to trick voters into giving him money so he can retire his debt.

“Those are resources they take from other seats,” Gonzalez told the Prospect, and even if that were not the case, Republicans made a mistake when they decided to “hurt a lot of their own members” with their economic and immigration policies. Affordability is the number one issue in his district, where more than 22 percent of families live in poverty, according to RGV Health Connect data, compared to 11 percent statewide.

“Secondly, these hyperaggressive ICE raids in South Texas are now hurting businesses. I’m having bankers, farmers, unlikely folks, folks who voted for Trump probably,” telling him they are against the deportation program. “One of the larger farmers in my district is only farming half of his land because he doesn’t have workers.”

NO ONE SHOULD MISTAKE THIS TO MEAN, however, that people in the Rio Grande Valley will vote blue no matter who, now or in the future, Democratic candidates and political researchers said. Dr. Álvaro J. Corral, assistant professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, told the Prospect that the voter base is angry and frustrated by the direction of the country, but is also “probably not all that enthused about the quality” of Democratic candidates, especially Cuellar in District 28, whom Trump pardoned from dozens of federal charges of bribery, money laundering, and conspiracy.

“My sense of things is that Democrats nationwide, including here in the Valley, are looking for people who are willing to fight back against Trump’s agenda,” Corral said. “Can folks expect that of Cuellar? He owes his clean record to no one other than President Trump.”

The Rio Grande Valley is a low-turnout region in a low-turnout state, Corral said, and whether candidates can muster excitement will determine the outcome. He noted that Republicans ended straight-ticket voting in 2020, which has allowed voters to pick who they like regardless of party. Someone who votes Democrat this year won’t necessarily do it again.

“We’re happy to vote our angst and whoever’s in charge may feel in charge regardless of party,” Corral said. He pointed to Pulido, the Tejano musician running to flip District 15, as a Democrat voters are excited about, noting that his tagline is a way to signal that he knows party affiliation means little to voters in the Valley: “He’s not Team Red. He’s not Team Blue. South Texas, he is Team You.”

Speaking with the Prospect over the phone, Pulido explained why he wanted to run without a party label.

“Both parties are highly unpopular right now,” he said. People are disgusted by the Trump administration. But that “doesn’t mean they’re happy with the Democratic Party. It means they’re up for grabs.”

He doesn’t think most folks think much about redistricting, but he does think it will backfire.

“South Texas is misunderstood. They don’t get us,” he said of both Democrats and Republicans. “You’re gonna see in November, we’re not loyal to parties here.”

For Padilla Stout, the signal Democrats should heed is that candidates must earn their votes. Like Democrats across the country are doing, she’s organizing with others across the state to knock doors, phone-bank, and send handwritten postcards.

“We’ve allowed leaders on both sides of the aisle to not have to answer to their constituents,” she said. “The people are the boss … not the other way around.”