A New Hope in Vermont

BRATTLEBORO, Vermont – Amanda Janoo, improbably, might be the next governor of Vermont. Polling shows the 39-year-old economist and novice politician neck-and-neck with Republican Gov. Phil Scott, Vermont’s chief executive since 2017. This is a seismic shift in a state where Scott until recently maintained approval ratings that reliably made him “America’s most popular governor.” But times are changing. 

By putting forward an expansive, future-facing vision for Vermont, organizing an intense and intimate ground game, and directly addressing fundamental issues like housing access and exorbitant health care costs, Janoo has mobilized a large and enthusiastic grassroots base and is running the most credible Democratic campaign for governor of Vermont in a decade.

“Managed Decline” in Vermont

People are sometimes surprised when I remind them that supposedly deep-blue Vermont has a Republican governor. And yet Phil Scott has won re-election four times with ease, taking 73 percent of the vote in 2024 even as Kamala Harris won the state by the largest margin in the country. That election also saw a successful Scott-backed effort to break Democratic supermajorities in the legislature, as Vermont Republicans capitalized on a national mood of voter discontent and backlash to rising costs to win back 17 seats in the 150-seat House and six seats in the 30-member Senate.

Two years later, Trump’s tariffs are having an outsize impact on Vermont, which does about $4 billion in annual trade with Canada. Tourism has declined due to this increasing trade war. Meanwhile, the American-Israeli war on Iran has led to rising gas, diesel, and heating oil prices—the latter up $2 a gallon over last winter. Like seemingly everywhere in the United States, this is compounding an already severe affordability crisis in the rural, northern state: Vermont has the highest health insurance premiums in the country, and also faces an acute housing crisis, with one of the highest per capita rates of unhoused people in the United States.

Scott’s response to this has been tepid—an approach to governance Janoo often calls “managed decline.” The governor routinely blames the Democratic legislature for worsening the state’s ills, criticizing their at-times expansive agenda on issues like land reform, climate change controls and emissions standards, and child care spending, which during the supermajority era they passed over his record-setting number of vetoes. Should he win this November, Scott has pledged to govern in much the same way as he has since 2017, advertising a package of tax and spending cuts as the path to attracting jobs and businesses, broadening the tax base, and supposedly making the state more affordable—trickle-down economics, as they say.

The Well-being Economy

Amanda Janoo’s approach is radically different. An economist by training, Janoo spent years working for the United Nations and consulting with governments around the world to support industrial policy and structural economic transformation, with a focus on building locally rooted and more equitable economies. Since returning to her home state of Vermont, she has sought to do something similar, working as an economist for the U.K.-based Wellbeing Economy Alliance and co-founding the Wellbeing Economy Alliance of Vermont in 2022.

The “wellbeing economy” essentially centers on the idea that GDP and economic growth are not the best metrics for determining a society’s health, instead focusing on an economy “designed to serve people and planet.” It focuses on things like participatory democracy, worker-owned businesses, collective management of natural spaces, sustainable agriculture, strong public education, and an emphasis on local autonomy and resilience. 

Janoo’s current run for governor can be seen as an expression of this vision. Her platform proposes a very diverse suite of policies thematically linked around sustainability and equity. This includes support for regenerative agriculture and circular manufacturing; the establishment of a Vermont Public Bank; support for worker-owned and cooperatively owned businesses; expansion of permanently affordable housing, including through novel means like community land trusts and housing cooperatives; investments in “community schools” that provide local services in addition to education; a ban on data centers; and much more.

Many of these proposals involve bureaucratic reorganization and shifting state priorities, but Janoo also emphasizes targeted taxation as integral to the vision. Her platform includes the “Fair Share” tax proposal, a 2 percent tax on Vermonters’ incomes over $250,000, rising to 8 percent on incomes over $500,000. She also advocates higher taxes on what she’s called “extractive” housing like luxury second homes, private equity–owned properties, and vacation rentals, along with taxes on digital advertising. These revenue streams, she says, can help ease the rapidly rising property tax burden, while also allowing for programs like free universal primary care—arguably the biggest proposal in her platform. 

As she’s detailed on her campaign site, Janoo envisions a network of primary care providers throughout Vermont, paid directly by the state. “It’s a starting point in a couple different forms,” she told me when we spoke before an early-October town hall in Brattleboro. One dimension is bringing primary care providers back to small communities in Vermont, where rural health care has been under increasing strain as clinics and birthing centers have closed and hospitals have reduced services. She also wants to get away from the standard fee-for-service model. In some respects, this builds on a similarly structured Community Nurse program that has taken root in several towns in the state.

Janoo emphasized that she sees her primary care plan as a stepping stone to a universal health care system, one that could involve regional collaboration with neighboring states. “The profit-oriented health care system is not working,” she said. “There’s a behavioral aspect [in] getting people used to being able to go see a doctor for free, not having to deal with copays and insurance,” along with getting providers on board with the model. 

That Janoo is proposing this plan in Vermont is especially notable given the state’s failure to implement a single-payer program under the last Democratic governor, Peter Shumlin. That plan, which collapsed in 2014 over anxieties about its cost, looms large in the state’s political memory (and is sometimes invoked as a cautionary tale nationally—Ezra Klein recently brought it up in his interview with Michigan Democratic Senate candidate and Medicare for All advocate Abdul El-Sayed).

But that past failure hasn’t tempered the enthusiasm of Janoo—who sees universal primary care as an achievable first step—or that of her supporters. “People in Vermont are completely burnt out,” John Field, a Janoo volunteer living in Putney, told me, referencing the skyrocketing cost of living in the state and Scott’s inaction on critical issues. “[Janoo] is like a bolt of light in a pretty dark landscape.”

I heard voters echo this sentiment across the state. “I was just at a point in March, like many people, [where I had] a really strong feeling of apathy and withdrawal,” said Charlotte Sullivan, a Janoo volunteer in Starksboro. “[Janoo’s] message and vision and energy and spirit just gave me a feeling I hadn’t really encountered. It has really transformed the way I spend what little free time I have.”

Roberta Nubile, who lives in South Burlington and works as a psychiatric nurse, told me she had previously voted for Scott, but was now volunteering with the Janoo campaign—the first time she’s worked on any political campaign. Health care is a principal reason for her involvement, she explained, which she sees intersecting with stressors like food insecurity, particularly in younger people.

“I have long wanted to see universal health care in Vermont, and [to] see Vermont lead the way in this,” Nubile said. “[Janoo] has a far-reaching vision and is thinking out of the box, which we need, because we gave up on the first iteration of affordable health care.”

“If we all do that, she’s going to win.”

Janoo has been barnstorming the state to make her case, and the excitement around her campaign was palpable at the Brattleboro town hall in October. A brass band and warm applause accompanied Janoo into the nearly full auditorium (capacity 750 people) in the art deco Latchis Theatre. Before Janoo addressed the crowd, we heard from local voices like Brattleboro’s own Becca Balint, Vermont’s sole representative in the U.S. House, and John Gibbs, a medical assistant and union organizer at the nearby nonprofit Brattleboro Memorial Hospital, which has been struggling financially. Gibbs’ union recently waged a bitter and ultimately successful contract fight, which he noted took place shortly before the local community also effectively organized to prevent what would have been a devastating closure of the hospital’s birthing center. Phil Scott, notably, offered the hospital little sympathy and no financial support, whereas Janoo came out firmly against closing the birthing center.

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When Janoo retook the stage, she began by asking the attendees a question she’s frequently been asking of voters: What do they love most about where they live? “I do believe the solutions to our crises are already here, and the role of government … should be to nurture, support, uplift, and spread those all over the state,” Janoo said.

One attendee spoke about Vermont’s beautiful natural landscapes, another about local support for Afghan refugee resettlement efforts, another about the area’s strong schools. One woman spoke up on behalf of local experiments in “peecycling”—a creative technique in regenerative agriculture, which is exactly what it sounds like.

Then Janoo spoke, exploring the well-being economy themes that undergird the campaign, and emphasizing the importance of having a “north star” in governmental goals. She used the example of Wales’ Well-Being of Future Generations Act, which has established seven economic and governance goals for the country—prosperity, health, equity, and global responsibility, among others—and how these metrics are used to guide government decision-making with a view toward future generations.

“Does anyone know what our state government’s goals are right now?” she asked. “That’s some of the challenge. We’re stuck in this reactive position, constantly reacting to crises because I don’t think it’s clear on what we’re actually trying to achieve.”

Despite Vermont’s population of under 650,000, making it the second-least-populated state in the country, Janoo emphasized the potential for a small, progressive state to be innovative in the current national and geopolitical moment. 

“The promise of states has always been that we would be both a bulwark against authoritarianism and a living laboratory of democracy … If ever there was a moment, this is the moment we need to live up to that promise,” Janoo said.

“I’ve been low on hope lately, and I feel so much hope tonight,” Brattleboro state representative Emilie Kornheiser said in the final remarks of the event. She implored everyone in the audience to go out and talk to ten people about Janoo’s campaign: “If we all do that, she’s going to win.”

A Shifting Race

On October 13, the Cook Political Report shifted Vermont’s gubernatorial race from “solid R” to “likely R,” finally getting closer to the mood on the ground. Support for “Amanda”—she is one of those politicians who seem to naturally go by their first name, not unlike the state’s senior senator—has become increasingly apparent for months, but myriad data are now reflecting that reality. 

For example, a late-September poll from the University of New Hampshire showed Janoo up by six points (49 to 43). Scott’s camp dismissed the poll—his campaign manager, Dustin Degree, called it “statistical malpractice”—but UNH had fairly accurately predicted statewide primary results a month earlier. Two other recent polls have shown Scott leading, but the race is undeniably close. 

Janoo’s volunteer organization is also impressive. “We have knocked on 12,000 doors and made 30,000 phone calls. We have over 1,500 volunteers across the state,” Janoo’s communications director, Neil Rohan, told me in early October. (For comparison, 1,500 volunteers in a state Vermont’s size would translate to about 800,000 volunteers on a national campaign.) 

Meanwhile, a state Democratic Party initially slow to embrace Janoo seems to have gotten behind her candidacy, the capstone of which was Bernie Sanders’ endorsement on October 7 (making him the third and final member of Vermont’s congressional delegation to endorse her). The campaign’s fundraising is also substantial, taking in more than the financially comfortable Scott in September—$291,000 to $223,240.

Indeed, the race seems to now be attracting at least some national attention. A couple days after we spoke, Janoo held an event with likely 2028 presidential candidate Ro Khanna in White River Junction, suggesting growing national awareness of her candidacy. On the other side of the ledger, Scott’s vulnerability has begun to invite outside spending. The Republican Governors Association, which is chaired by Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, has injected $400,000 into the race in the last several weeks—slightly awkward given Scott’s rhetorical insistence over ten years on keeping his distance from national Republicans. 

Meanwhile, Janoo has been out front on major local issues. She objected to Vermont attorney general Charity Clark bringing charges against anti-ICE protestors in Williston, a move supported by Scott; criticized Scott’s unpopular return-to-office mandate for state employees; and emphatically supported banning Flock cameras and blocking data centers (Scott vetoed a bill earlier this year that would’ve put specific regulations on AI data centers). 

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When Janoo and I spoke, I asked her a question I had been mulling as I listened to the excitement and hope people expressed about her candidacy, sentiments that have seemed to both energize and haunt transformative political campaigns in recent years. A comprehensive vision ultimately requires mass engagement—so how does this movement stay mobilized beyond the election?

“It’s something I’ve sat with a lot from the beginning,” she said. “A single political leader is not going to change our system, right?” She wants to ensure that the connections happening amid and facilitated by her campaign—among unions, pro-democracy groups, mutual aid organizations, rural school alliances, and others—endure, whether she wins or loses.

“If I do win, I think the challenge I’ve also seen in government is—movements can be really good at getting things on the agenda, but then once it comes to the actual policy design or implementation, it becomes a little bit of a black box,” she said. Keeping Vermonters engaged in the actual process of drafting and creating policy is “something that is a sort of root of my commitment to democracy.”