Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Brazilian Workers’ Party, who turns 81 tomorrow, rained on the parade of oligarchs everywhere, with a stunning comeback victory over Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula’s win spoiled what was supposed to be the capstone of a series of right-wing victories in smaller Latin American countries, leaving the region’s two largest nations, Brazil (population: 214 million) and Mexico (133 million), governed by effective progressives.
Brazilian voters rejected a would-be dynasty by the thoroughly corrupt Bolsonaro family. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, tried to present the race as age vs. youth, but in the end voters didn’t buy it.
Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated in 2022, was convicted of attempting to stage a coup and sentenced last November to 27 years and three months in prison. Jair is currently under house arrest due to health issues. Now, he will not get his expected pardon from his son.
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Not only does Lula’s victory spoil the storyline of a global right-wing resurgence, but even more remarkably, he did it as an incumbent. Much of the gain for the right has been a vote against incumbents, as bad economic conditions for ordinary people boost challengers everywhere. Lula also became the first-ever Brazilian president to lose the first round and come back to win the final round.
The swing was an impressive eight million votes, a feat that most commentators had deemed impossible, even more so since it was small right-wing parties whose candidates were dropped from the final, and their supporters were expected to switch to Bolsonaro. Yet Lula lost the October 4th first round by about 47 to 45 percent and came back to win the final by 51.8 to 48.2.
How did he do it?
Mainly, Lula increased turnout, which had been low in the first round, and he ran a much more effective campaign. Turnout increased dramatically, especially in Lula strongholds such as Brazil’s depressed northeast and the favelas of the big cities. He also used social media more effectively and came alive as a debater.
In one memorable exchange in the televised debate last Friday, Bolsonaro referred to Lula by a crude name that is used in right-wing circles, Nine Fingers, referring to an accident in a metalworking factory that cost Lula his little finger as a teenager. “I was a minor and working at night, because either I worked or I did not eat,” Lula responded, reminding viewers of his humble origins. “I will not accept a posh guy calling me nine-fingers.” Bolsonaro apologized and the exchange went viral.
Lower-income Brazilians remember how Lula delivered for their families with pathbreaking measures such as the Bolsa Família, a cash family allowance for parents as long as they keep their kids in school. In his third term, Lula also delivered increases in the minimum wage and tax reforms that cut taxes on low-income Brazilians while raising taxes on the wealthiest. Moral of the story: Deliver for ordinary working people and they deliver for you.
Today, after the results were announced, Brazil’s stock market dropped about 15 percent. That’s because Lula will be bad for the economy, right? Well, no. During Lula’s four-year term since 2022, Brazil’s GDP has grown at an annual rate of about 3 percent, one of the world’s best performances.
So why did the stock market tank? Because Brazil’s financial speculators, expecting that a Bolsonaro government would cut taxes on the rich and benefits for workers, bid up stock prices by about 15 percent—and that air just came out of the market when Bolsonaro lost. Is financial capitalism great, or what?
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the true opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who won the Nobel prize that President Trump coveted, finally made it home to demand free and fair elections. This further embarrasses Trump, who has treated former Nicolás Maduro ally Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s leader because Rodríguez is willing to cooperate with Trump’s flagrantly corrupt oil deals.
In Argentina, Latin America’s third-largest country, Trump’s slavish and clownish ally Javier Milei is in big trouble. You can get elected as a clown, but then you have to govern.
And in Europe, a student-led revolt ousted Serbia’s dictatorial president, Aleksandar Vučić, in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, continuing the restoration of democracy in Central Europe and repudiation of Trump allies that has spread from Poland to Hungary and now Serbia.
All in all, a good day for progressives and for democracy. If luck, resistance, and organizing diligence holds, we can celebrate the results in Israel tomorrow and at home a week after.
