Donald Trump has had a very bad month, between his stalemated war, the dysfunctional Republican Congress, and record-low approval ratings. That comes on the heels of Republican losses in nearly every off-year special election, with swings to the Democrats averaging roughly 15 points. It all portends an epic wave election in November.
Unless, of course, the election can be rigged.
Trump first tried to gerrymander House districts, so Republicans could choose their voters rather than the other way around. This has been mostly a failure, as Democrats fought back in California and Virginia and limited the damage. The terrible Callais decision, however, blows up the Voting Rights Act and could lead to racial gerrymandering that takes out Black districts in several Southern states.
More recently, Trump has been desperately trying to gain control of the election machinery, so far to no avail. His executive orders trying to assert control over electoral machinery that the Constitution clearly gives to the states have been blocked by the courts. The SAVE America Act, which would accomplish the same thing by statute, was passed by the House but died in the Senate.
Trump still hopes to use his control of the Postal Service to undermine the use of mail-in ballots, and to find a way to require photo ID, all on the bogus and discredited premise that illegal voting is rampant. One vexing problem is that even if election officials in blue and purple states reject Trump’s demands to turn over election records for federal purging, Republican officials in some states are going along. This is being challenged in court.
How far would Trump go? In the nightmare scenarios posed by some concerned groups, Trump waits until Election Day, claims that Iran has hacked the election, declares a national emergency, and suspends the election until the accuracy of polling can be assured. Delay is deadly. In some versions of the nightmare, Trump sends in ICE to seize ballot boxes and voting machines.
Is this scheme too far-fetched, even for Trump? Probably, but with Trump you never know. Remember January 6, 2021, when Trump did everything he could to annul the 2020 election results, and failed mainly because Vice President Pence refused to follow Trump’s orders.
In March, Michael Waldman, president of the Brennan Center, far from a conspiracy theorist, posted a memo connecting several dots. He pointed out that “just hours after launching the Iran war, Trump reposted a headline on Truth Social claiming, ‘Iran tried to interfere in 2020, 2024 elections to stop Trump …’” Waldman also cited a Washington Post article disclosing that “Trump allies have been circulating a 17-page draft executive order that would use claims that China interfered in the 2020 election” to declare a national emergency to upend elections, banning mail ballots and voting machines, among other things.
The Brennan Center has also done the most background work on the possible misuse of a little-known device called Presidential Emergency Action Documents (PEADs). These are secret, pre-drafted presidential orders that can be signed and put into effect instantly in a declared emergency. This process, which dates to the Eisenhower administration, was developed for use in catastrophic circumstances, such as a nuclear attack. Neither Congress nor the courts have ever reviewed their use.
Former Colorado Sen. Tim Wirth and former Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, among others, have warned that Trump, who has taken so many autocratic actions, might use PEADs to orchestrate an Election Day coup. However, as the Brennan Center material points out, the use of PEADs can’t turn an illegal emergency order into a legal one.
Trump has lost all of the key Supreme Court cases in which he tried to illegally invoke presidential emergency power, including the tariff case, his attempt to seize state National Guard troops under the Insurrection Act, and his use of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to justify summary deportations without due process.
If Trump were to attempt something as extreme as summarily canceling the election, even the Roberts Supreme Court would resist. But the practical question is whether the Court could act fast enough or possibly issue a prior injunction against a planned Election Day coup.
MOST LEADERS IN THE “DEFEND DEMOCRACY” CAMP are more worried about the ordinary forms of voter suppression, which Trump and his allies in MAGA-controlled states will surely try to take to new depths this year. This includes not only familiar tactics such as purging voter rolls, intimidating poll watchers and local election officials, changing locations where voters may cast ballots, reducing the number of polling places, and altering the rules and procedures on mail-in ballots.
I’ve been interviewing Democratic secretaries of state, who have been conducting joint tabletop exercises to plan for all possible contingencies. They think the risk of an Election Day coup is remote and are working with defend democracy groups and state attorneys general to anticipate and resist other incursions.
As Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar told me, the problem with emphasizing extreme risks like the possibility of ICE involvement is that it plays into Trump’s hands by intimidating people into staying home, especially in a state like Nevada where more than 20 percent of the electorate is Latino. “We need to maintain confidence,” Aguilar said, “and make sure that our legal system is prepared to manage these issues.”
To depress turnout, he added, ICE doesn’t need to show up. People merely need to be afraid.
Miles Rapoport, former Connecticut secretary of the state and the present leader of 100% Democracy (and a Prospect board member), put it this way: “We can all imagine nightmare scenarios, but they are both unlikely and unhelpful. It’s more important that secretaries of state, pro-democracy legal and advocacy organizations, the courts, and an alerted citizenry push back effectively and make the elections work.”
Whether you are more concerned about a somewhat far-fetched risk of an attempted coup, or about familiar forms of voter suppression taken to new extremes, the remedy is the same. The people need to turn out in record numbers, both to vote and if necessary to face down ICE.
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