There are a lot of interesting primary races today. In St. Louis, Cori Bush may return to Congress if she can make it past millions of dollars in negative ads and vanquish Rep. Wesley Bell in a rematch. The Kansas governor’s race has become a referendum on a tax break given to data center developers last year. There aren’t really any primaries in question in Virginia, but the margins will be worth looking at in a state with multiple Democratic takeover attempts expected in the fall. And in Seattle, socialist former city council member Kshama Sawant is running against Rep. Adam Smith in a primary, but given the top-two format, nothing will be determined today.
But none of these possess the importance of the Michigan primary, where available polling and reports from the ground foretell victories for Abdul El-Sayed and Will Lawrence. El-Sayed is running for Senate in the swing state; Lawrence in the toss-up Seventh Congressional District. Both are progressives who, if the ground reports are true, are poised to defeat centrist opponents. And these prospects are completely freaking out the centrist wing of the Democratic Party, as we’ve reported.
Despite over $60 million in advertising—half of that from AIPAC’s super PAC United Democracy Project—outside groups can’t seem to make enough Michigan Democrats love El Sayed’s opponent, Haley Stevens. And despite lots of outside money for Lawrence’s opponents and millions of dollars in somewhat clumsy attack ads against him, even polls from entities supporting his opponents show Lawrence in front.
Fellow Michigan Democrat Rep. Hillary Scholten is openly saying she would never support El-Sayed, putting the “blue no matter who” conversation squarely on the other foot. Other operatives have despaired over Lawrence, claiming that “this race is 100% off the table now if Lawrence wins.” The sitting governor (Democrat Gretchen Whitmer) and one senator (outgoing Democrat Gary Peters) went all in for Stevens, while the other senator (Democrat Elissa Slotkin) endorsed Matt Maasdam, one of Lawrence’s two major opponents. This broke some unwritten rules in state politics, and reflected the establishment’s urgent push to keep primary elections within their control.
The fearmongering over what may happen in these critical races three months from now has dwarfed any kind of introspection over what has already happened leading up to today. El-Sayed, Lawrence, and also Donavan McKinney, a Detroit-area state legislator who may vanquish Rep. Shri Thanedar in a primary tonight, have put themselves in this position through outworking their opponents, finding issues that resonate broadly, and energizing the party base of volunteers and donors. They have run the kinds of campaigns that are essential to making the Democratic Party able to win anywhere.
Some Democrats have figured this out. Asked about their plans come November for the Seventh District, in which Lawrence is favored to become the nominee, House Majority PAC communications director CJ Warnke called it “one of the most competitive seats on the map” and said that House Majority PAC “plans to support the Democratic nominee and flip this district blue in November.” Katie Smith of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee echoed Warnke, saying that “this toss-up race will be a referendum on Tom Barrett’s record of broken promises.” Other Democratic operatives praised Lawrence for being able to mobilize voters and build an impressive volunteer base.
By contrast, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (which has already run ads against likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race) and the Senate Majority PAC, the two main party establishment campaign arms for Senate races, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. (For what it’s worth, even Stevens, and current Sen. Gary Peters, whose retirement created the vacancy, have said they would support El-Sayed.)
BOTH EL-SAYED AND LAWRENCE entered a multicandidate field without the natural advantages of incumbency, running against a tide of conventional wisdom that says progressives cannot compete as well as moderates in toss-up seats. But they also had a lot of positives in common. El-Sayed was the only candidate in his race who had run statewide; Lawrence was the only candidate with a history in his district, as his two more establishment challengers either lived outside of Lansing or spent most of their professional lives outside of Michigan.
Their opponents focused on positioning and arguing for who is the most electable. In our age, where everyone styles themselves a pundit, that has become a powerful enough message to break through in Democratic primaries. But El-Sayed and Lawrence focused on what would actually energize the voters determining their fate.
A lot of El-Sayed’s early campaign spots talked about corporate monopolies. He then foregrounded the war in Gaza, an issue where voters have rapidly moved toward his position and where the massive spending by United Democracy Project reinforced his points about the scourge of outside money as well as the role of Israel-Palestine policy. And his oft-repeated slogan—something he learned from his 2018 gubernatorial primary was necessary—of “money out of politics, money in your pocket, and Medicare for All” displayed his commitment to strong core principles in line with voter concerns.
El-Sayed also built a high-profile policy proposal around something that is also a vital piece of Lawrence’s platform: data centers. Lawrence’s main ad in the race featured a data center fight in his district. The issue has become so central to his campaign that when people were asked in a focus group what they think about when they think of Will Lawrence, data centers came out on top. He has effectively defined himself as the anti–data center candidate, which as a synecdoche for taking government back from oligarchical forces is a pretty good position to take.
It also has significant cross-partisan appeal in a nod to the general election. When Donald Trump visited the district last week, a data center protest broke out in the middle of his speech. Lawrence has courted Trump voters over the issue, received Republican endorsements, and inspired unusual loyalty among people otherwise aligned with MAGA.
In an anti-system election, data centers have become a uniting message that also undercuts the establishment. When El-Sayed made remarks at a data center site being developed in Saline Township last week, it was the same project that Whitmer touted at a groundbreaking ceremony a year ago. The topic can resolve voters’ questions about whom candidates stand with—which side they’re on.
Both El-Sayed and Lawrence have amassed significant grassroots organizational support in their campaigns, well beyond the ground games of their opponents. And they are rather generously running almost as a slate, not only with each other but with other candidates and organizations in the region. El-Sayed put out a fundraising ask for Lawrence during the last week before the primary, when he certainly could have asked for more money for his own campaign to combat the $60 million onslaught he’s facing. The two have cross-endorsed with McKinney and appeared at online events together. And Lawrence spent his final days walking across Lansing to raise money for local tenant rights and community organizations.
There will be other explanations for tonight’s results if El-Sayed and Lawrence are victorious; Lawrence got late support from a Republican PAC, showing that the conventional wisdom about progressives and swing seats spans both parties. But the clear visions of their campaigns, their stands on the issues that matter, and their ability to inspire are a million miles away from a relatively empty moderate message. Progressives ran campaigns on issues that mattered to voters, while their opponents fell back on old electability arguments. We’ll see who wins today, but the signs point to voters wanting to be proud to vote for something.
Obviously, how this plays out in November will fuel weeks’ worth of factional arguments. But it’s at least a little surprising how the Democrats saying they are the most serious about winning in November aren’t willing to put in the time or learn any lessons about how to get to November.
