Democrats had a night beyond their wildest dreams. While some races won’t be decided for a while, the likelihood is that Democrats will hold between 54 and 56 Senate seats (Alaska is going to take a while to decide, and Mississippi is essentially tied), and as many as 256 House seats, a number well beyond the wildest dreams of the most optimistic operatives. And two states really define the wave, one that was partially expected before the election but not nearly to this degree, and one that was not on anyone’s radar screen.
The first, and easily the most important for the future of politics in this country, is Texas. James Talarico is likely to put up a double-digit victory in a state that has been out of reach for Democrats since the days of Ann Richards, after enduring—literally—hundreds of millions of dollars in attack ads. Trump won the state by 13 points. That’s a 24-point swing.
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And he wasn’t alone. Gina Hinojosa took the governor’s race, defeating three-term incumbent Greg Abbott in an absolutely wild outcome, and that looks to have carried through in all statewide races. That includes the Railroad Commissioner’s race, where unrepentant racist Bo French lost to Jon Rosenthal.
In the U.S. House, Democrats came into the election with 13 seats and were facing a gerrymander that was supposed to deprive them of five more; there are a few races left to call, but they are going to come out with… either 13 or 14 seats. The gerrymander didn’t do a damn thing.
The biggest reason for this is a historic change in direction from Hispanic voters in south Texas. Every race along the Texas/Mexico border went to the Democrats. Talarico took Webb County in the Rio Grande Valley by a 72-25 margin, a shift of over 50 points from 2024’s presidential vote. Reeves County east of El Paso was a 45-point shift; Cameron County in the southern part of the state shifted 44 points, and Willacy County next door shifted 38 points. Dozens of counties went left by 20 points or more.
There are huge policy changes on order; Hinojosa may even come in with a trifecta, a clean sweep of state government. The stock markets were falling with the expectation that data center development would be disrupted. And the oil industry will not have the same level of free rein in Austin. But on a national level, an America with a blue Texas is an America that Republicans would have a very hard time winning under current circumstances. This is why Democrats have been fighting so hard for Texas for years, and they may just have achieved the breakthrough.
But while monumental, this may be the secondary story of the night compared to North Carolina.
Roy Cooper salted away this race a long time ago, and he coasted to a much larger victory than expected, beating former RNC chair Michael Whatley by nearly 20 points. But it’s the House races that are truly insane.
As of 1a.m. Eastern time, Republicans have not been called in a single House race in the state out of 14. No Republican is winning by more than 1.8 points in the House races. As it shakes out, there will probably by 9 Democrats and maybe 10; there were 4 before the election. The head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Richard Hudson, is going to lose. The chair of the House Rules Committee, Rep. Virginia Foxx, is a total tossup, with her opponent Chuck Hubbard winning with a handful of votes left to count, with the most in the area where Hubbard cleaned up. In all, between four and five incumbents will lose, and one more open seat went to the Democrats. This includes seats Trump won by 17 points or more in 2024.
North Carolina’s legislature gerrymandered the House seats this year. They were trying to take out Don Davis in the 1st District; they didn’t succeed. But they also lost to the likes of Paul Barringer, who raised around $900,000; Cyril Jefferson, who raised a total of $220,000; and Lakesha Womack, who raised, not a typo, $56,000. Jefferson and Womack are both Black. Tim Moore, who apparently has lost to Womack, was the architect of the infamous transgender bathroom bill in the state years ago.
North Carolina Democrats also flipped 19 seats in the state House to win the chamber for the first time in 16 years; they flipped four seats in the state Senate. They swept the judicial races and are on track to take back the state Supreme Court before long.
These results are stunning. The lasting coattails of Roy Cooper is one part, but I have to think that Trump’s neglect of the western part of the state after the terrible damage from hurricanes had to have been a factor; the massive swing was bigger in that region.
Plenty more to be said later, but North Carolina and Texas completely repudiated the Republican Party. And the extent to which this is not a Trump-fueled blip but a real change in how politics works in these states will dictate what we can expect for the next generation of politics in this country.
