The war between Israel and Hezbollah raised serious questions about Israel's military preparedness and strategy. Calls for the resignation of the military chief of staff, Dan Halutz, abound. It's likely that the Israeli military will clean up its act quickly (although perhaps with a new chief of staff) since there's nearly universal agreement in Israel that a smart and ready Israel Defense Force (IDF) is vital to the country's survival. But whether the political class that oversees the military can survive the war's fallout is another question entirely.
Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party was organized with one political purpose: to manage a unilateral withdrawal of much of the West Bank. Its Knesset faction includes a few stray politicians from Labor who rode in on the centrist wave of Israeli popular opinion, but it's mostly culled from the right-wing Likud bloc. When Ariel Sharon -- Kadima's founder -- was in power, the party didn't have a written platform; after Sharon's stroke forced him from the scene, a platform was written, but if you were to ask any Kadima supporters what it is or what it means, it's unlikely that any two could agree. But it hardly matters now: in the aftermath of the war with Hezbollah and with nearly universal agreement in Israel that the government completely mismanaged both the war and the home front, the prime minister finds his entire governing agenda in tatters. If Hezbollah and Hamas' abductions of Israeli soldiers this summer proved anything, it proved that the unilateral option is dead. Israel can't pull out of territory without obtaining security arrangements.
The government's agenda has narrowed to the sole task of rebuilding Israel's battered north, but it's probably not enough to keep the government together for the long term. Political forces -- and differing critiques -- are looming from both the right and the left. The right-wing argument, as voiced by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultra-conservative ally Avigdor Lieberman, calls for more force rather than less as a general matter of policy, whether against Hezbollah, Hamas, or even Fatah.
The left-wing response trickling out from a dispirited political bloc argues for security deterrence partnered with diplomacy and negotiation -- perhaps including Europe, the moderate Arab states, and even Palestinian Hamas Prime Minister Haniya. Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister and Olmert's main rival in the Kadima Party, is trying to end-run Olmert and force Israel to negotiate with Syria, as is Kadima cabinet member Avi Dichter, a former head of Israel's security services. (Defense Minister and Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz supported Livni's stance early on, but appears to have pulled back, perhaps taking the lead of Olmert, who continues to parrot the Bush administration's hard-line posture toward Damascus.) Livni is still popular among the Israeli public, but there has been a not-so subtle whispering campaign in the media against her, allegedly orchestrated by Olmert. If the next election comes swiftly and is decided on security issues, it will be difficult for her to emerge as a viable candidate for prime minister.
It's still too early to know if Olmert will survive the incredible fury from Israeli voters across the spectrum in the wake of this summer's war. (There's likely to be a state commission of inquiry, headed by retiring Supreme Court Chief Justice Aharon Barak. This is the highest form of inquiry possible, one that Olmert has been trying to avoid but that angry citizens and returning soldiers appear set on making a reality. It will examine the political and military leadership's role in the response to Hezbollah.) But if Olmert does survive -- and if he seeks any agenda beyond rebuilding Israel's battered north -- he will most likely have to embrace some sort of multilateral diplomacy. The embrace of Europe, serving almost as a lifeline to Israel toward the end of the Hezbollah ordeal, was a first for the country, and could provide an ongoing avenue toward renewed negotiations with the Palestinians and, down the road, even the implementation of a settlement with them secured by European forces.
Meanwhile, it's unclear whether Amir Peretz can rehabilitate his own leadership, having lost a majority of his Knesset faction and garnered disappointment among former supporters. As Ariel Rubenstein, one of Israel's top academics and public intellectuals, wrote recently in the newspaper Yediot Achranot: “When I voted for Amir Peretz in the Labor Party primaries, I was convinced that I was voting for the right man, but it has become apparent that I voted for another Amir Peretz.” Peretz supporters were gravely disappointed by his inability to offer strategic leadership during the war, his hyperbolic comments aimed at Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, and some of the actions he approved, including the attacks on infrastructure and fuel and electric power centers in Gaza and Lebanon and the last, seemingly futile ground offensive into Lebanon, just after the cease-fire was called.
Right now, Peretz is hanging on thanks to the specter of a Netanyahu-Lieberman alternative. It's even keeping his own unruly Knesset members in line. Still, those seeking to challenge Peretz when the inevitable party primary and new elections come are getting more active. An interesting duo publicly emerged in the last few days -- taking up, ironically, the very combination of social and economic domestic policies and a peace agenda abroad that Peretz initially revived in the Labor Party. Avishai Braverman, the recently retired president of Ben Gurion University and a world-renowned social democratic economist, announced a pact with Ami Ayalon, the retired head of Israel's Shin Bet security forces. They formed an arrangement to run together, each supporting the other as party leader and potential prime minister, on a combined platform of social, economic, and military security. One thing this duo is likely to point out is how the privatization of Israel's economy when Netanyahu was finance minister and Sharon prime minister severely crippled Israel's ability to care for its citizens in the north during the war.
Meanwhile, scandals and trials abound. The architect of the Kadima Party, Justice Minister Haim Ramon, was forced to resign his post this week to face charges of “indecent assault” involving a young female soldier. Olmert himself is being investigated for two different real estate deals. There's also an ongoing (and still rather foggy) investigation of blackmail allegations made by the Kadima Finance Minister Avraham Hirschson. Sharon protégée Tzahi Hanegbi, Kadima's head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, is about to be indicted for political deal making when he was environment minister in Sharon's government. In the ugliest case of all, Israel's president, Moshe Katsav, is likely to face rape charges for a case brought against him by a subordinate. Though his position is ceremonial, the spectacle and potential trial adds to a dark mood on the Israeli political scene. As summer ends, political survival seems to be the only agenda this Israeli government has going for it.
Jo-Ann Mort writes frequently about Israel for, The Forward, tpmcafe.com and elsewhere. She is co-author of Our Hearts Invented a Place: Can Kibbutzim Survive in Today's Israel? She is an officer of Americans for Peace Now, affiliated with Israel's Peace Now movement.
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