One problem with attempting to make strategic judgments from our perches atop the couches of America is that the folks whose behavior we are predicting and handicapping often don't work off quite the same analysis of the situation that we do. Therefore it's a good thing, when possible, to actually hear foreign leaders laying out their analysis of the facts on the ground [bolding mine]:
“Let me explain a few points,” Mr. Ahmadinejad continued. “One gentleman said the situation between America and Iran has gotten worse. No. It's not worse than last year; it's better. Better.
“Last year,” he said, “we were under serious threats—military threats. Today, at the very worst, it's economic threats, and even that—well, I don't really want to say, but for those who would like to pursue them, the situation is not conducive …. Even though there are those in America who would like to put pressure on Iran, they won't be able to. We've really progressed. You see, 118 countries [of the Non-Aligned Movement] have specifically supported Iran's nuclear program. That's eliminated the excuse that four or five countries speak for the ‘international community.'
“In Indonesia, when I went there, there were great demonstrations in our favor,” he said. “And wherever we went in Asia, we heard shouts of ‘Ahmadinejad, we support you against America!'” He repeated the slogan in English—a language that, judging by his pronunciation, he obviously speaks well enough, but rarely uses.
“Our political situation, by God's grace, is great,” he went on. “For those who don't want our people to progress, the situation is not good. In the Middle East, the situation for America has become very bad. Very. They thought if they attack Lebanon, their situation would get better,” he said, allowing no difference between Israel and the United States. “They gave 33 days to the Zionists to do something in Lebanon, and it didn't happen. Same thing in Iraq; same thing in Afghanistan. It's not that our situation has gotten worse in the last year; it's that it's gotten much better.[...]
President Ahmadinejad, apparently satisfied that he had convinced everyone that Iran was strong, moved on to the question of Iran's nuclear program. “If, God forbid—God forbid—we budge on this issue, they'll next say, ‘You have to give up your chemistry departments in your universities, and your physics departments too.' Then even the medical schools.” The president's tone wasn't bombastic; if anything, it was very matter-of-fact. “It's clear that they don't want us to progress,” he said. “Of course, not all Americans—Americans are good people.
That last, by the way, is a very widespread and powerful belief throughout Iran. Few folks think that America will content itself with the interruption of their nuclear program. The cessation of that will simply be followed by demands on other fronts, in other areas, for other concessions. Our problem, think many in Iran, is with the Iranian regime, and no non-proliferation guarantees will obviate that conflict.
