AZ SEN: PEDERSON MAKES HIS MOVE? When we last checked in with the Senate race in Arizona, businessman Jim Pederson (D) was inching closer to incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R), narrowing the gap to just six points in a race Republicans didn't expect to be competitive this year. It continues to get more interesting by the day. National Journal reports that the DSCC is watching the race closely and is making an 11th-hour investment in pulling an upset.
According to two sources familiar with the TV ad buy sheets in Arizona, the DSCC is buying up as much time as they can find in the Tuscon and Phoenix for TV ads that will begin airing tomorrow. With the NRSC trying to put more Dem seats in play earlier this week (see MD, MT and MI), it's not surprising that the Dems wouldn't try the same thing, especially since they are still raising money at an incredibly fast clip. As for the AZ race, our sources tell us that Republican Jon Kyl continues to hold a mid-to-high-single digit lead but Dems are enthused about their chances because Democrat Jim Pederson is apparently doing better in early voting than expected.
DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) added some details to that analysis this morning, explaining that his committee was buying as much as air time as possible in Arizona. The move was driven in large part by a new DSCC strategy memo, to be released later today, which explains, "According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. "Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents." Head fake? Part of a Democratic wave? Stay tuned.
--Steve Benen (crossposted at Midterm Madness)
